Two Years Of Data And Scouting On Adley Rutschman Points To One Logical Conclusion In Baltimore

By the midpoint of the season, there is a very good chance that 21-year-old rookie Samuel Basallo will have caught more innings than Adley Rutschman and been significantly more productive and available in the batter’s box.

There is a case to be made, that a third straight season is slipping away from Rutschman (now on the seven-day concussion IL) – who was supposed to be a workhorse catcher after being the first-overall pick of a talent-rich 2019 draft – in terms of catching 120-130 games and producing at the plate while doing it.

What the mounting evidence is telling us – statistical, anecdotal, availability, contractual – is that selling high on Rutschman before he enters a lame-duck 2027 is the only reasonable way to position this franchise to win every nominally this season and for the foreseeable future. Pete Alonso is blocking him at first base, and with just 22 homers and 95 RBIs in 223 games since June 20, 2024, that’s not enough thump to be DHing a ton.

Basallo’s extraordinary maturity at the plate and need to develop – and him being the only young homegrown product position player ever extended by failed baseball exec Mike Elias – are all making it clear that any serious front office would be marking Rutschman throughout the industry, and not getting media members not to including him on their list of top players to go by the deadline. Guess what's happening here?

So let’s get real about this player. The case, frankly, builds itself, and we’ve made it somewhat before, but with Rutschman out again, it warrants a deeper discovery as we head to July. Especially when even Craig Albernaz – he of the alleged mastery of tough love for this catcher – is outwardly gushing about him.

“The past three games, Sammy has been outstanding in all three,” Albernas said after Sunday’s, 12-1, thumbing of the Dodgers. “… The way to navigate that tough lineup being back there, and honestly when the game was over (Saturday), Sammy asked to catch today. So it’s four in a row with a day game after a night game. So that’s very telling of where he’s at.”

Yes, indeed, skip.

Availability Is The Greatest Ability

Rutschman might be an old 28, despite Elias doing everything in his powers to coddle and enable him and barely put him behind the dish despite his supposed transformational powers there. They sure don’t treat him as such or ride him much (he DHed a payoff game for goodness sake), and make no mistake his fundamentals and blocking and throwing all slipped massively beginning in 2024, but here’s a telling fact:

The Orioles have played 329 games since June 20, 2024 (when this rebuild started tanking again) and Adley has caught 161 of them. Yeah, less than half. And he still couldn’t produce even without the “weight”’ of catching anything close to a normal load, let alone a heavy one.

Since June 20, 2024, Rutschman has appeared in 223 games total (remember, 22 total homers in that span), with a mind-numbing slash of: .226/.311/.317 for a .682 OPS that is well below the MLB average (generally around .730). In fact, Jackson Holliday, another first-overall pick, despite being still just 22, has a .681 OPS in that span and Basallo has a career .698 OPS (and rapidly rising), despite just turning 21 when he was promoted last year.

In years past Adey didn’t hit when he caught, but this year he can’t swing the bat as a DH, with a .136/.220/.159 line in 12 games as the designated hitter. Small sample to be sure. And while Basallo got shamed for not being tough enough, at the same time Adley was being nursed through a hamstring issue (caught once in a 10-day span), Basallo is making this dangerously close to a 50/50 spit back there.

By the time Rutschman returns from the IL, even if it is just a seven-day stint, he will be outside the top 22 (at least) in innings caught in MLB this season. Peers like Shea Langeliers (A’s), also a 2019 first rounder, are putting up major slugging totals and he’s already caught 150 more innings than Rutschman this season.

How do Rutschman and Basallo shape up this season?

Adley: 228 PA Sammy: 240 PA

8 HR - 40 RBI 10 HR - 31 RBI

. 254/.329/.458 - .787 .258/.321/.447 - .768

354 2/3 Innings Caught 298 1/3 Innings Caught

Caught 4 4ays in row 2 times Caught 4 days in a row 2 times

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

And for those who would try to tell you that Rutschman is back to being an impact bat in 2026, I’d say he’s back to being streaky and unavailable and, for large stretches, unproductive. Since a torrid first month Rutschman has once again produced more like someone who should bat six rather than someone with a birthright to bat in the top four of an allegedly contending lineup.

Since May 1, Ruschman has a .211 batting average (10th on the team), a .299 OBP (seventh on the Birds), .373 SLG (eighth) and .672 OPS (seventh). Seen that guy before. He has four homers and had driven in 17 runs in over 38 games in that span.

So when people in the media who do the Orioles bidding tell you how crazy it would be to trade this guy, it’s saying more about how compromised they are than anything baseball related. No one could possibly think this team has sufficient pitching to do anything in October and Rutschman isn’t signing an extension here now and labor Armageddon possibly looms in 2027. Trading him with two potential playoff runs in him – with so many teams thinking they can contend – is the last best time to move him.

Getting out of a place where he was the face of a failed rebuild and the wrong pick at 1-1 would be good for him. Change of scenery and all. And this team isn’t close to being constructed to win anything with him (playoff series; not squeaking into a wild card).

Give Basallo the runway he deserves at catcher, go get a Patrick Bailey type to serve as the back-up (he and Joey Bart have already been dealt, so it’s not like that’s impossible to land if you don’t think Sam Huff is good enough), and flip him for some arms who can help you now and in the future for Adley.

Could you imagine what the skipper who be saying about Basallo is he had a two-year run like this? The good news is, you won’t ever have to hear it, because this kid is too good and too driven to ever fall into this kind of a hole. Even Orioles pathetic player development isn’t capable of breaking this kid.

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