Lucas Giolito’s Holdout Ends With a Humbling Whimper—and a Golden Opportunity

The pitcher turned down a chance to earn $19 million this year and will instead earn a fraction of that. But the Padres represent a promising landing spot.

The San Diego Padres have signed starting pitcher Lucas Giolito to a one-year deal worth a maximum of $8 million. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Everything keeps coming up Padres.

San Diego has been hit by a barrage of good news over the past two weeks, and they just got another boost. A new owner is on his way to town, while the Friars have won 11 of 12 and are tied for the best record in baseball at 16–7. Nick Pivetta's elbow issues are the team's only downer, and they made a huge move to cover for that on Wednesday.

The Padres have agreed to a deal with Lucas Giolito, the top free agent starter still available. Giolito had been holding out for a bigger deal than he’d been offered this winter, but has reportedly accepted a one-year pact worth $3 million, with a chance to reach $8 million and a mutual option for 2027 that almost certainly won’t be exercised by both sides. This has a chance to be an absolute steal for San Diego given Giolito's lengthy track record and solid numbers.

The veteran right-hander bet big on himself this offseason, turning down his end of a $19 million option with the Red Sox to chase a bigger payday. That gamble backfired, and now the Padres are cashing in.

What Giolito brings to the Padres

Giolito returned from elbow surgery in 2025 and made 26 starts for Boston, going 10–4 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 121 strikeouts against 56 walks in 145 innings. He declined his side of a $19 million mutual option and hit free agency. It would appear that was a bad decision.

Despite solid numbers on the surface last season, some of Giolito’s underlying metrics were quite poor. His xERA (5.06), xBA (.264), chase rate (26.7%) and whiff rate (22.9%) were well below league average. Opponents produced an xSLG of .523 against his four-seamer despite an actual slugging percentage of just .389.

The takeaway? Giolito got pretty lucky in 2025, and the gap between the results and his peripherals is exactly why he was still available. It’s also what makes him such an intriguing bet for San Diego.

Giolito’s fastball averaged 93.3 mph last year, solidly below the league average for an MLB righty (95.0). It does average 18.1 inches of rise and 6.8 inches of arm-side run, but has been susceptible to hard contact. That means his slider and changeup have to play up for him to find success.

Giolito emerged as the Red Sox’ No. 3 starter last season, but was unable to pitch in the postseason due to elbow irritation. | James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

It’s worth noting that Giolito has had elbow issues throughout his career, especially the last few years. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012, then had an internal brace procedure before the 2024 campaign and missed the entire season. He dealt with a flexor issue late in 2025 but wound up not needing surgery.

If he stays healthy, the 31-year-old will almost certainly benefit from working with Padres pitching guru Ruben Niebla. Last year Niebla oversaw the growth of another former Red Sox pitcher in his early 30s, as Pivetta had his best big league season in 2025 after signing with San Diego late in the offseason. Similarly, Randy Vásquez has been one of baseball’s best pitchers early this season in what has been an impressive transformation, and Giolito’s former Red Sox teammate Walker Buehler also looks better than he did in Boston last year. Michael King and Seth Lugo are other examples of Niebla's impressive work with righties.

Giolito fits the exact profile the Padres have targeted under Niebla. He’s a veteran arm with flaws but a solid base to build from. If he can tweak a few things there’s a solid likelihood of him outperforming this deal. And with San Diego looking like a playoff team, Giolito should have some high-profile chances to prove he’s worth more than the $3 million he was guaranteed by the Padres.

Padres rotation with Giolito signed

San Diego’s rotation is in a bit of flux right now, but once Giolito is ramped up, here’s what it could look like:

• Michael King, RHP
• Randy Vásquez, RHP
• Lucas Giolito, RHP
• Germán Márquez, RHP
• Walker Buehler, RHP

While those five are the current projection, Griffin Canning is also on his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered last June. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is recovering from Tommy John surgery and Pivetta is sidelined with a flexor strain. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron is currently up with the big league squad, but that doesn’t seem likely to last long.

There’s something glaring that jumps out when you look at that group of pitchers. It’s exclusively right-handed. You can bet Padres general manager A.J. Preller has noticed that as well, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he eventually worked a deal to add a lefty.

For now, Giolito is joining a staff that ranks second across baseball in ERA (3.22). He’ll just be doing it for far less money than he thought entering the offseason.

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