Padres vs Cubs Expert Predictions for Wild-Card Series at Petco Park

The San Diego Padres are hosting the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card round of the 2026 Major League Baseball postseason.

Last year, the Padres were ousted by the Cubs in three games in the wild-card series.

This year, they'll be looking for revenge.

"Obviously that stung last year for us," Padres veteran Manny Machado said on Monday. "They played better ball than us last year. This year's going to be a little bit different. Hopefully we go out there and take care of business. Obviously playing in front of our home crowd and playing in front of these fans here, I think it's going to be a lot different. Definitely looking forward to that rematch for sure."

The Padres and Cubs met six times this season, with Chicago winning five of the games. All six games came in the first half of the season, though, and the Padres feel much better about themselves after finishing the year as the hottest team in baseball.

“Honestly, you probably look at that part of the season as probably the lowest of lows for us,” second baseman Jake Cronenworth said of their early-season series against the Cubs. “It’s right in the middle of an eight-game losing streak. Not just an eight-game losing streak, but we’re getting crushed night in, night out."

"We are a totally different team," added right-handed pitcher Michael King, who's starting Tuesday's Game 1. "We have a totally different outlook on this series coming in, totally different game plan of how we're going to attack because we've got a lot of confidence in our pitchers and hitters to actually execute this time."

The Padres won 17 of their last 20 games and went 41-18 over the season's final 59 games. Now, they're looking to reach the National League Division Series, where the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Brewers are waiting.

Here's how the staff at Padres On SI expects the series to shake out.

Padres vs Cubs Wild-Card Predictions

J.P. Hoornstra: Home-field advantage might benefit the Padres (and work against the Cubs) more than any pair of wild-card teams. If used correctly, the Padres' superior bullpen can take down the majority of innings at Petco Park to close the series out quickly. Prediction: Padres in 2.

Gabe Smallson: The Padres are the hottest team in baseball, and even though Chicago's talent is undeniable, I am solely going with recency bias to make my pick: The Cubs went 11-13 in the final month of the season to San Diego's 18-6. With that being said, the Cubs also have this year's National League MVP on their team (Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .289 with three home runs in his last 10 games) and won't go down quietly. Prediction: Padres in 3.

Ricardo Sandoval: The Padres enter the wild-card series as one of the hottest teams in baseball. If the starting rotation can give them even five innings, the lights-out bullpen will handle the rest. Perhaps San Diego’s biggest advantage is forcing the Cubs to play in what will be an electric crowd at Petco Park. It’s hard to see the Padres losing two games in front of their home crowd in this short series. Prediction: Padres in 3.

Jason Fray: San Diego is playing with a ton of confidence heading into this series. Hosting the Cubs at Petco helps tremendously, and the edge in starting pitching should give the Padres the edge here. Prediction: Padres in 3.

Noah Camras: The Cubs are sputtering going into the playoffs, having gone just 17-22 since Aug. 15. The Padres, on the flip side, went 25-14 in that same span. The Padres offense will stay hot while the bullpen takes down a majority of the innings. The Cubs will win a game, but that will be all as San Diego heads to the NLDS. Prediction: Padres in 3.

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