Jesus Luzardo Set for Better Days With Phillies Based on Key Stat

A key stat indicates that better days are ahead for Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo.

Apr 15, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (42) throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

One of the most disappointing developments for the Philadelphia Phillies in the early going of the 2026 MLB regular season has been starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo.

Opponents have crushed him through his first four starts. Only one of them, against the Colorado Rockies on the road at Coors Field of all places, did he manage to give up fewer than five earned runs.

In his first start of the season, the Texas Rangers got to him for six runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks scored five against him, and in his most recent outing, things hit rock bottom, surrendering nine, eight of which were earned, against the Chicago Cubs.

His ERA sits at a brutal 7.94 through four starts and 22.2 innings. However, there are reasons to believe that better days are ahead based on some of his peripheral stats he has been producing.

Better days are ahead for Jesus Luzardo

Apr 10, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

While his raw numbers are ugly, he is still performing well in several advanced statistics. His FIP remains an excellent 2.90, indicating that there is a lot of bad luck involved in his underwhelming performance thus far.

The most telling part of his production is the strikeouts. Luzardo has already racked up 30 strikeouts on the season with only five walks. 

As Eno Sarris of The Athletic added on X, that kind of strikeout-to-walk ratio is predictive of excellent performance on the horizon, more so than his poor ERA. 

Over the last five seasons, the worst ERA for a pitcher who has peripherals similar to what Luzardo has produced to this point, while throwing at least 100 innings, was Garrett Crochet with the Chicago White Sox in 2024, when he had an ERA of 3.57.

This was from before last night's start, but Jesus Luzardo still has a great K-BB & that's more predictive than his bad ERA. In fact, he has pristine peripherals. If you look at last 5 seasons, min 100 IP, the *worst* ERA by someone w/ his peripherals? 3.57, Garrett Crochet '24. pic.twitter.com/TakHdB4KzT

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) April 16, 2026

His walk rate of 5.1% is well below the league average, and his 30.6% strikeout rate is as well. Also working in his favor is an unsustainable .417 batting average on balls in play against him. 

Opponents are also producing an average exit velocity of 85.7 mph and a hard-hit rate of 31.7%, both of which are also well below the Major League average of 88.4 mph and 39.4%.

While the -0.2 bWAR, MLB-high three losses and sky-high ERA are all alarming for fans to see, better days are almost assuredly on the horizon for the talented left-handed pitcher. It will only be a matter of time until he is pitching closer to the 3.92 ERA and 3.7 bWAR that he produced during his first season with the Phillies in 2025.