Phillies Have Unlikely Path to Claim Top Seed in National League Playoffs

The Philadelphia Phillies have a playoff berth and the National League East crown, but there’s an outside chance they can get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper (3) watches his ball clear the wall for a home run against the New York Mets during the seventh inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies have already clinched the National League East title and have practically clinched a bye through the wild card round of the playoffs.

The Phillies (91-62) put themselves in prime position for that No. 2 seed by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series earlier this week. The Phillies will have a five-game cushion with nine games remaining going into Friday’s action against Arizona. It would hate a Herculean effort by the Dodgers, or a massive collapse by the Phillies, for that to change.

While Philadelphia is already working out how it will use its starting rotation in the postseason, including a Game 1 divisional series start for Cristopher Sanchez, there is a chance the Phillies can improve its seeding to No. 1. But it will require some work.

How Phillies Can Move Up to No. 1 Seed

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Phillies are three games back of the Milwaukee Brewers (94-59) with nine games remaining for both teams. Both are on the road. The Phillies open a set with the Diamondbacks while the Brewers open a series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Phillies home for the final week of the season. Philadelphia will host the Miami Marlins next Tuesday through Thursday, followed by a season finale series against the Minnesota Twins. Milwaukee, meanwhile, will continue a road trip to San Diego from Monday through Wednesday, followed by a return home to host Cincinnati in the final three games of the season.

For Philadelphia, the number to remember is four, as is the Phillies need to win four more games than the Brewers in the final nine to get the No. 1 seed. Why?

Well, the Phillies can’t end up in a tie and clinch the No. 1 seed because the Brewers own the tiebreaker head-to-head. Milwaukee has a 4-2 record against Philadelphia this season. That is thanks, in part, to the Brewers sweeping the Phillies in May. The Phillies took two out of three in their meeting after the All-Star break.

So, if Philadelphia wins six of its final nine games, the Brewers can win no more than two. If the Phillies win seven, the Brewers can win no more than three. The math isn’t great, but it does give Philadelphia a chance.

There is another wrinkle that should fuel Philadelphia’s desire to get the No. 1 seed. The Brewers have the best record in baseball and no team in the American League has won 90 games yet. The likelihood is high that the NL team with the best record will have home-field advantage through the World Series, should they get that far.

It’s the last remaining drama in Philadelphia’s season. By Monday, the potential path to a No. 1 seed will clearer, one way or the other.