Inside The Phillies

Wheeler Proved the Difference Between Good Pitching and Great Pitching in Phillies' Game 1 Victory

As good as Yu Darvish was, Zack Wheeler was better in the Philadelphia Phillies' Game 1 victory over the San Diego Padres.
Leo Morgenstern|
Wheeler Proved the Difference Between Good Pitching and Great Pitching in Phillies' Game 1 Victory
Wheeler Proved the Difference Between Good Pitching and Great Pitching in Phillies' Game 1 Victory

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Philadelphia Phillies

When The Athletic published their predictions for the NLCS on Tuesday afternoon, nearly two-thirds of their MLB staff picked the San Diego Padres to come out on top of the Philadelphia Phillies. Several writers pointed out that the Padres have three strong starting pitchers atop their rotation, while the Phillies only have two.

Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove were set to start the first three games of the series for San Diego. Philadelphia had tapped Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for Games 1 and 2. 

Many also pointed out that the Padres have home-field advantage, which will work in their favor if the series goes to seven games.

With the Phillies' Game 1 win at Petco Park, home-field advantage matters a whole lot less. What's more, the victory demonstrates the glaring flaw in comparing San Diego's three strong starters to Philadelphia's two. 

Philadelphia's two are better. 

  • Zack Wheeler: 26 starts, 2.82 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.10 xERA, 4.79 K/BB, 0.76 HR/9
  • Aaron Nola: 32 starts, 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.74 xERA, 8.10 K/BB, 0.83 HR/9
  • Yu Darvish: 30 starts, 3.10 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 3.49 xERA, 5.32 K/BB, 1.02 HR/9
  • Blake Snell: 24 starts, 3.38 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 3.19 xERA, 3.35 K/BB, 0.77 HR/9
  • Joe Musgrove: 30 starts, 2.93 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.27 xERA, 4.38 K/BB, 1.09 HR/9

Yu Darvish is a great pitcher, but Zack Wheeler is on another level. He proved as much on Tuesday night, pitching seven scoreless frames. Both starters had good outings, but Wheeler was so good that Darvish only had to make a couple of mistakes to cost his team the ballgame.

Game 2 promises to be another pitchers' duel, with Aaron Nola facing off against Blake Snell. Once again, however, the Phillies will have the advantage in the matchup. Snell is good, but Nola is better. 

After the first two starters, you have to give the advantage back to San Diego for a day. Joe Musgrove has a much longer track record of success than Ranger Suárez, who he is set to face in Game 3. Be that as it may, that's only one game out of three where the Padres have the upper hand.

Strong starting pitchers are great, but true aces are better. Zack Wheeler's performance on Tuesday proved exactly that. 

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Leo Morgenstern
LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.

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