© Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Projecting Phillies Mick Abel's Timeline to the Majors
Selecting a high school pitcher in the first round of MLB’s Amateur Draft is usually a bad sign, but the Phillies may have struck gold with Mick Abel. Given that the 18-year-old had significant development remaining and a long lanky frame, it seemed tremendously difficult to project Abel out of the draft, but he has answered his doubters and more.
Abel was ranked No. 51 on Baseball America’s annual list of top 100 prospects for 2022 and No. 41 on Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects list.
Yet it wasn’t all easy-going for Abel with the Clearwater Threshers in 2021. Last season, Abel pitched 44.2 IP to a 4.43 ERA. That’s not entirely impressive, especially considering he averaged just above three innings per start even though Abel did excel at retiring hitters via the strikeout.
In 2021, he had 13.3 K/9, 66 strikeouts in 44.2 IP. His struggles with command were apparent too, walking 5.4 batters per nine, but his elite strikeout numbers prove that raw talent is bubbling under the surface.
It may seem strange that Abel only made 14 starts over the entirety of Clearwater’s season. That’s because he didn’t play the whole season. Abel was shut down in July with shoulder tendinitis. It also explains why Abel faced so few batters per start, he was built up from 48 pitches per outing to a season high 79 pitches on July 21st, his final start of the year.
In an article by Scott Lauber for the Philadelphia Inquirer, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said of Abel’s situation that “He’s doing fine… We’re just being very careful.”
It’s an understandable move given there’s no reason to rush Abel since he’s still years from the major leagues.
One rival scout said Abel reminded him of Roy Halladay, a generous comparison, but Halladay’s track could be Abel’s best case scenario.
Halladay was drafted out of Arvada West High School, 17th overall in 1995. Abel was drafted 15th in 2020. Both played rookie ball or instructional league that year before moving on to some level of single-A the following year. After their sophomore professional seasons both players were ranked as top prospects by Baseball America, Abel at no. 51 and Halladay at no. 23.
For Abel, that leaves us at the present, but Halladay would pitch one more full season in the minors in 1997 between double-A and triple-A, what would be Abel’s 2022. In 1998, Halladay made 21 starts at triple-A and made two starts for the Toronto Blue Jays that September.
If Abel perfectly follows Halladay’s path he would reach the majors by September 2023. That would be a best case scenario, but a more realistic scene may seem something like this.
Since Abel never moved up from single-A in 2021, he’ll be likely to start at high-A Lakewood in 2022. If he continues to excel there, he could see double-A by mid-season 2022. It seems unlikely that Abel would jump two levels in one season, so he would then start 2023 in double-A with Reading. Again, he would need to perform at a high level to see promotion to triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2023, but he does have the capability. In 2024 he could start the season at Lehigh Valley before an early-season promotion to the Phillies, unless of course Abel plays well enough in spring training to win the job there.
Of course, these leaps are only possible if Abel continues to develop as planned and rise above the level of his competition. Stories like Brien Taylor, Matt Bush, and Mark Appel are all too common, especially for high school pitchers.
But high school success stories litter the Phillies rotation already. Zack Wheeler was drafted 6th in 2009 out of East Paulding High School and Zach Eflin was selected 33rd in 2012 from Paul J. Hagerty High School.
If Abel can develop into even a fraction of the player the Phillies believe he can be, he could be a fearsome weapon for years to come.
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