How a Major Arbitration Decision Affects Paul Skenes' Pirates Future
In this story:
PITTSBURGH — Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the Pittsburgh Pirates are well aware of this and what a recent arbitration case might mean for the future of their star's time with the franchise.
American League Cy Young Award winner in left-handed starting pitcher Tarik Skubal just won his arbitration case with the Detroit Tigers, getting his salary demand for the 2026 season.
Skubal filed at $32.5 million, while the Tigers filed at $19.5 million, with the panel ruling in favor of the two-time Cy Young winner in his final year of arbitration.
That money is the most ever handed out to a player in arbitration and also breaks the record by almost $13 million for any pitcher in arbitration.
Outfielder Juan Soto made $31 million in his final year of arbitration with the New York Yankees in 2024 and left-handed starting pitcher David Price made $19.75 million in his final year of arbitration with the Tigers in 2015.
Where Skenes is With Pirates' Team Control
All MLB players have six years of which they are under team control, with three years of pre-arbitration and then three years of arbitration.
Those first three years MLB teams can pay the league minimum, $780,000 in 2026, or a little more, but generally not much higher than that.
Skenes earned his first full year of service in 2024, despite not playing the full year, after he won National League Rookie of the Year Award, thanks to the most recent collective bargaining agreement.
He then won the 2025 NL Cy Young Award in his first full season and second year of pre-arbitration.
Skenes made $564,946 in 2024 and then $875,000 in 2025 for being on the active roster, which is what the Pirates paid him.
He has also made money from the pre-arbitration bonus pool, which earned him $2,152,057 in 2024, including $1.5 million for finishing third in NL Cy Young voting, plus a record $3,436,343 in 2025, with $2.5 million coming from winning the NL Cy Young Award.
The Pirates don't pay money from the pre-arbitration, as The Office of the Commissioner central funds this pre-arbitration bonus pool, so individual teams don't play the players this bonus.
Skenes now has one year left of pre-arbitration and then enters into arbitration in the next offseason.
What Will Arbitration Look Like for Skenes?
Skenes will have three years of arbitration starting next season, which means that each year, he and his team will present a salary and then the Pirates will put up a figure they seem reasonable.
Arbitration as we know it will likely be impacted by the impending lockout that starts on Dec. 1, which could put the 2027 season into peril.
There could be a whole new procedure for length of team control and also how everything goes down with arbitration, but let's assume that everything stays the same and there is no lockout for 2027.
Skenes is not necessarily comparable to Skubal in that he's already one of the best pitchers in baseball, whereas Skubal had a strong 2023 season, 7-3 record in 15 starts, 2.80 ERA, but nothing that made him the star that he's been the past few seasons.
The Pirates won't necessarily pay $32 million his first year, that's not how arbitration works, but with how Skenes has pitched and if he continues that into 2026, he could make anywhere from $5-10 million.
Skubal made $2.65 million in 2024 and that should be a much higher number for Skenes, as long as there's a 2027 season.
The Pirates will then have to raise that rate for 2028, as Skubal made $10.15 million his second year of arbitration, following his first Cy Young award.
Skenes may then see his go up to $15-25 million for that second year, as long as he keeps his historic pitching going.
The final year of his deal becomes even larger, and if Skubal made $32 million, Skenes might shatter that mark, going upwards of $35-45 million or even higher.
These marks aren't exactly what will happen, just predictions from your local Pirates beat writer, but Skenes can and should make more in arbitration with how his career is trending.
What Should the Pirates Do with Skenes?
The Pirates have historically had one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball under owner Bob Nutting and rarely spend money on free agents or big-time deals for current players.
Ryan O'Hearn signing with the Pirates on a two-year, $29 million contract was their first multi-year free agent signing since 2016 and is the highest AAV (Average Annual Value) for any free agent contract they've done.
Bryan Reynolds holds the largest contract in Pirates history at eight years, $106.75 million, which is much lower than what Skenes would command.
The Pirates could try to work an extension for Skenes now, giving him a chance to earn more money than he would this season and even in earlier years of arbitration and not having to wait until next decade when he hits free agency.
Pittsburgh signing Skenes to a long-term extension is incredibly unlikely, not just for money reasons, but because Skenes wants to play for the team that gives him the best chance of winning.
The Pirates could also trade Skenes earlier than his final year of arbitration, landing some top prospects or MLB-ready bats and pitchers that could try to keep the team competitive, even in the star's absence.
Skenes likely won't get traded anytime soon, as Pirates general manager Ben Cherington has been adamant about keeping him in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh may also decide to keep Skenes and pay him through his final year of arbitration, while also putting the best team around him, with top bats and a great pitching staff, giving him the opportunity to win a ring before becoming a free agent and going elsewhere.
It's not easy for the Pirates to think about what they have to do with Skenes past this season, but they can't wait to do so either.
Dominic writes for Pittsburgh Pirates On SI, Pittsburgh Panthers Pn SI and also, Pittsburgh Steelers On SI. A Pittsburgh native, Dominic grew up watching Pittsburgh Sports and wrote for The Pitt News as an undergraduate at the University of Pittsburgh, covering Pitt Athletics. He would write for Pittsburgh Sports Now after college and has years of experience covering sports across Pittsburgh.