Three Bold Predictions for Pirates' Season
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Today is the day when "hope springs eternal" for all 30 Major League Baseball clubs. The day where every team is even in the standings. The day where fans can look towards October and envision their favorite team playing in the World Series. Today is, of course, Opening Day.
For Pittsburgh Pirates fans, hope has not been in abundance in Opening Days of past. The team has not had a winning record since 2018, when they went 82-79 and missed the playoffs. The last time they made the postseason was in 2015, where they bowed out in the Wild Card round to the Chicago Cubs.
Even after a relatively quiet off-season, this Opening Day feels different. The Pirates possess one of the most talented - and marketable - players in all of baseball with ace pitcher Paul Skenes. His phenomenal rookie season put more eyes on PNC Park than ever before, as his outings became must-see appointments for baseball fans. Skenes is ready to take the next step as a true ace for Pittsburgh, and many of his comments this off-season gave hope that is emerging in the clubhouse as a leader.
Skenes has been touted as a favorite for the National League Cy Young award by various outlets. After adding two new pitches in the off-season, he could be even better this season. And with his Opening Day start, Pirates fans should get close to 30 starts of Skenes action.
We saw last year with the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal how valuable an ace can be for a playoff push. The Pirates have starting pitching depth outside of Skenes, so their formula for success may be different, but Skubal's dominance into October proved that workhorse starters are not completely in the past. Skenes hopes to carry on this tradition for Pittsburgh.
Besides Skenes, the Pirates have plenty of other intriguing storylines going into Opening Day. Will Jared Jones pitch this season? Who will get the most at-bats at first base? Can closer David Bednar have a bounceback year after struggling in 2024?
“He’s a killer on the mound and now he will have to be a killer in his recovery. We feel confident that he’s going to be on the mound, helping us win games this year, and I’m excited for that."
— Noah Hiles (@_NoahHiles) March 26, 2025
Full update on Jared Jones, from the team, here: https://t.co/I3TcRMHPrc
This Opening Day carries a different energy for Pittsburgh — one fueled by Skenes’ star power, a young core hitting its stride, and the tangible belief that the Pirates’ rebuild is finally turning a corner.
While past seasons began with cautious optimism, 2025 brings legitimate reasons to dream bigger. Here are three bold predictions for how this Pirates campaign could defy expectations.
Paul Skenes will join the 300 strikeout club
Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, teammates for the Astros at the time, are the last pitchers to reach this special benchmark, in 2019. It's been six years since we've seen a starting pitcher dominate hitters with swing and misses all season long, while pitching enough innings to reach that special 300 number.
Paul Skenes, New Cutter? pic.twitter.com/T9pRvmxAjJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 1, 2025
With a full MLB season ahead and two new polished pitches in his arsenal, Paul Skenes is primed for a historic strikeout campaign. The 6'6" flamethrower averaged 12.8 K/9 in his rookie season, and with improved command of his devastating "splinker" (splitter-sinker hybrid) and a sharper slider, he could surpass that rate in 2025.
Only 20 pitchers in MLB history have reached 300 strikeouts in a season, but Skenes has the raw stuff and workload to join them. If he makes 32 starts and maintains his elite 35% strikeout rate, he’ll flirt with 300 Ks — putting him in the same conversation as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Spencer Strider’s modern dominance. His Opening Day start will set the tone for a year where every Skenes outing becomes a must-watch strikeout spectacle.
Skenes is a throwback, workhorse ace who wants to go as deep in the game as possible. The Pirates have seemingly taken the "training wheels" off of Skenes, and he won't be under as many pitch count limits. If he stays healthy and even approaches 200 innings, the rare benchmark of 300 strikeouts should be attainable.
O'Neil Cruz will hit 40 home runs
The Pirates’ 6'7" center fielder has always had light-tower power, but in 2025, he’ll finally put it all together. After adjusting his approach to punish fastballs early in counts, Cruz will tap into his 90th-percentile exit velocity (116+ mph) more consistently. With improved plate discipline (cutting his 35% chase rate down closer to 25%), he’ll see more hittable pitches — and demolish them.
Cruz hit 24 HRs in just 103 games in 2024. Over a full season, with PNC Park’s right-field seats (320 ft. down the line) calling his name, 40 HRs is within reach. If he pairs that with 25+ steals, he’ll become the first Pirates player since Barry Bonds (1992) to post a 40 HR/20 SB season — and insert himself into the NL MVP conversation.
Bubba Chandler will make a Jacob deGrom-like rise to Rookie of the Year contention.
The Pirates’ No. 3 prospect, Bubba Chandler, began 2024 in Double-A but could finish 2025 as a National League Rookie of the Year finalist. A converted shortstop with elite athleticism, Chandler pairs a 98-100 mph fastball with a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup.
Once he gets the mid-season call-up, he’ll mirror Jacob deGrom’s 2014 breakout, dominating with a sub-3.00 ERA and 11+ K/9. If he logs 15+ starts and helps fuel a Pirates playoff push, he’ll follow in Skenes’ footsteps as the next Pittsburgh pitching phenom — proving the Pirates’ pitching development system is now among MLB’s best.
2.0 IP
— Young Bucs (@YoungBucsPIT) March 14, 2025
0 H
0 R
0 BB
4 K
Bubba Chandler was lights out in the Spring Breakout 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/VLzKbgA2De
If even two of these three predictions come true, the Pirates won’t just be fun—they’ll be dangerous. Skenes’ dominance, Cruz’s breakout, and Chandler’s emergence would signal that Pittsburgh’s rebuild has officially transitioned into a playoff-contending phase. For a fanbase starving for winning baseball, 2025 could be the year hope becomes reality.
Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.