Pirates Player Most Likely to Be Traded This Offseason
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PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Pirates have big offseason decisions to make, and could trade away players as part of that.
One player the Pirates may trade this winter is right-handed starting pitcher Mitch Keller, who was the subject of trade talks at the 2025 deadline and last offseason.
Keller is the second-longest tenured Pirates player, behind outfielder Bryan Reynolds, but the Pirates, who are looking to play in their first postseason since 2015, could make drastic changes.
There are a few reasons why the Pirates may trade Keller, which they have previously considered, and they have similar reasons this winter.
Moving Keller's Contract to Another Team
The biggest motivation for trading Keller this offseason is his contract, as he will make the highest salary of any player next season.
Keller makes $18,411,500 in 2027 and will make $20,411,500 in 2028, marking the final two years of the five-year, $77 million contract extension he signed on Feb. 22, 2024.
The Pirates' next two highest-paid players next season are Reynolds and O'Hearn, who will make $14.25 million and $15 million, respectively.
Reynolds will be in the fifth year of an eight-year, $106.75 million contract extension he signed in 2023, and O'Hearn is in the final year of a two-year, $29 million contract he signed last offseason.
Pittsburgh had a solid offense last season, so moving Keller will be more about his contract rather than acquiring lineup pieces.
The Pirates will spend much more money on arbitration this year, with center fielder Oneil Cruz heading into his second year and starting pitcher Paul Skenes entering his first year, as well as the eight other players they have to account for.
Pittsburgh may want to spread Keller's salary elsewhere throughout their roster, and also to sign other players, such as re-signing second baseman Brandon Lowe.
A Steady Decline for Keller
Keller had a poor season in 2026, which ended with a right arm teres major muscle injury, knocking him out for most of the final two months of the season.
He had a strong start, a 4-1 record in his first eight starts, 35 strikeouts to 14 walks and a 2.86 ERA over 47 innings pitched.
Keller then posted a 2-7 record in his next 14 starts, 13 home runs and 53 earned runs allowed over 68.2 innings pitched for a 6.95 ERA.
The Pirates veteran has had a decline in his Stuff+, per Fangraphs, going from 107 to 94 since his 2023 All-Star campaign.
Mitch Keller's Stuff+ Decline From 2023 to 2026
Pitch | Stuff+ (2023 to 2026) |
|---|---|
Fastball | 105 to 91 |
Sinker | 104 to 87 |
Cutter | 99 to 84 |
Slider | 134 to 102 |
Curveball | 94 to 90 |
Changeup | 96 to 87 |
Keller's four-seam fastball velocity has also dropped two ticks from 2023, 95.2 mph, to 2026, 93.3 mph.
His sinker and sweeper also regressed last season, both going from +3 run value in 2025 to-4 and -9 in 2026, respectively, per Statcast.
Keller coming off an injury also makes it tougher for him, 31 in 2027, to come back and be the pitcher he was in 2023 who earned his big contract extension.
Looking Towards Other Starting Pitching Options
The Pirates have a strong rotation heading into next season: youthful and with the potential to be one of the best in baseball.
2025 National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes leads the way, 2026 All-Star Braxton Ashcraft is back, Jared Jones showed promise after returning from a long-term injury and Bubba Chandler just completed his first full season as a starting pitcher.
Keller should fill an important role in this group, being the veteran and someone who can take on longer outings without a risk of severe injury.
The Pirates may not believe that Keller can do that anymore, or even if he can, they can turn to a cheaper starting pitcher to fill that role.
This could come by signing a left-handed starting pitcher, after moving Keller, or looking at some of the rookies the Pirates have.
Right-handed pitchers in Khristian Curtis, Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly, as well as left-handed pitchers in Hunter Barco and Connor Wietgrefe could all feature in the Pirates rotation next season.
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Dominic writes for Pittsburgh Pirates On SI, Pittsburgh Panthers Pn SI and also, Pittsburgh Steelers On SI. A Pittsburgh native, Dominic grew up watching Pittsburgh Sports and wrote for The Pitt News as an undergraduate at the University of Pittsburgh, covering Pitt Athletics. He would write for Pittsburgh Sports Now after college and has years of experience covering sports across Pittsburgh.