Regression to the Mean Is a Double-Edged Sword for Rangers in Second Half

The Texas Rangers need to hold off some regression if they want to make a postseason push.

Jul 4, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy (15) watches play during the second inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. | David Frerker-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season.

Coming into the year, many predicted they would challenge for the American League West title, returning to prominence after a down 2024 campaign followed up their World Series victory in 2023.

The Rangers looked to have one of the most complete, well-rounded lineups in baseball, but questions persisted about their pitching staff.

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Entering play on July 23, Texas is starting to show some signs of life with a 52-50 record and their offense finally starting to produce at the plate.

Throughout the year, it has been the lineup that has continually let the team down, failing to live up to the preseason expectations.

Some fans are awaiting the regression to the mean for the offense, because this is a lineup that has too many established players to struggle to this level for an entire campaign. But regression to the mean works both ways, which is the biggest second half storyline to follow for the Rangers.

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Can their positive offensive regression to the mean outweigh the negative regression their pitching staff might undergo?

“The problem is that if both of these things happen, it’s not going to change their outcome much after a disappointing first half. For this season to be a success in Texas, they will need one order of regression to the mean (offense), hold the regression to the mean (pitching),” wrote Levi Weaver of The Athletic (subscription required).

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The pitching staff kept the team afloat with some truly dominant performances, spearheaded by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in the starting rotation.

Their bullpen has been great, with relief pitchers recording an ERA of 3.17 in 360.2 innings pitched. The only blemish for that group has been struggles slamming the door at the end of games, converting only 26 out of 43 save opportunities.

Eventually, something will have to give for the Rangers.

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Right now, the positive regression of the lineup is winning out with the team victorious in four out of five games post-All-Star break.

If that can continue, Texas will remain right in the thick of the AL wild card race.

Entering play on July 23, they are only 1.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox, who are currently holding the third and final wild card spot.

For more Rangers news, head over to Rangers On SI.