How Rangers Can Catch Astros and Win AL West in Final 18 Games

The Texas Rangers have 18 games to chase down the Houston Astros and do something they haven’t done in more than a decade — win a division title.

The Rangers (71-73) and the Astros (73-71) each had 18 games left in the season. Both have the same schedule cadence. When Texas plays, Houston plays. When Texas is off, Houston is off. Each will know what the other is doing down the stretch.

Entering Tuesday’s action it is the closest division race in baseball. Two things keep it from being more compelling — the .500 aggregate record of the two teams and the fact that their season series is already done.

That is a factor in the home stretch for the Rangers as they try to catch the Astros. Let’s explore how that can be done — realistically.

Current AL West Race

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada walks on the field before the game. — Houston Astros manager Joe Espada. Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Astros: 73-71

Rangers: 71-73 (Two games back)

Astros Magic Number to Clinch Playoff Berth: 17

The magic number is the number of Astros wins and the number of Rangers losses needed for the Astros to clinch a playoff berth. For instance, Houston needs to win nine of its last 18 games and Texas needs to lose eight of its last 18 games for Houston to clinch. Nine plus eight equals 17. Magic number is zero.

Here is what the two teams have ahead of them the last three weeks of the season:

Rangers: at Seattle, Tuesday-Thursday; at Arizona, Friday-Sunday; off day, Sept. 14; vs. Boston, Sept. 15-17; vs. Toronto, Sept. 18-20; off day, Sept. 21; vs. New York Mets, Sept. 22-24; at Minnesota, Sept. 25-27.

Astros: at Philadelphia, Tuesday-Thursday; at Tampa Bay, Friday-Sunday; off day, Sept. 14; vs. Kansas City, Sept. 15-17; vs. Atlanta, Sept. 18-20; off day, Sept. 21; at Seattle, Sept. 22-23; at Athletics, Sept. 24-27.

As mentioned earlier, part of the math is that the Astros won the season series and thus have the tiebreaker. So it isn’t enough for the Rangers to catch the Astros and not pass them. Texas has to win the division outright. For that reason, the Rangers must win three more games down the stretch than the Astros.

To use the prior example, if Houston wins nine of its final 18 games, then Texas must win 12 of its final 18 games to pass the Astros and win the division.

Texas has nine games left at home and on the road. The Rangers are 40-32 at home but 31-41 away from home. Houston has six home games and 12 road games left. Houston is 37-38 at home and 36-33 on the road.

The Rangers are going to have to load up at home and hold serve on the road. Let’s say the Rangers can manage to go 5-4 on the road down the stretch. To reach the 12 wins needed in the prior scenario to pass a 9-9 Houston, they would need to win seven of their final nine at home. That’s a tall order. Boston and Toronto are fighting for playoff berths.

Houston’s schedule is tougher this week and next with nine games against either division leaders or a team (Philadelphia) in striking distance of a division leader. But it lightens with six division games to end the campaign, four against the Athletics. That’s a favorable matchup.

Texas won’t face a division leader down the stretch. But Arizona, Boston and Toronto all have things on the line. That’s nine games.

For Texas to have a realistic shot at the division, it needs to be near-perfect at home (7-2) and a bit above average (5-4) on the road. That’s a 12-6 finish, with some help from Houston.

What has been a mediocre division race all season comes down to the final three weeks. It’s time to see if the Rangers can inject some drama into it.

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