This Fantasy Baseball Prediction Should Leave Rangers Feeling Good About Slugger

The Texas Rangers have adopted a philosophy of trying to make what they have better in 2026.

The Rangers didn’t make wholesale offensive changes, though certainly trading Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo was significant. But, if the opening day line-up as envisioned falls into place, most of last’s year’s opening day lineup will be on the field.

Several of those hitters need to bounce back in 2026. One, in particular, had surgery, installed a new workout regimen and has an intriguing fantasy baseball prediction that may translate into a great season.

Rangers Slugger’s Fantasy Prediction

Texas Rangers first baseman Jake Burger swings through a baseball with his bat. — Texas Rangers first baseman Jake Burger. | Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images

Recently, ESPN’s Jeff Passan revealed his 2026 season preview and it included a fantasy baseball prediction for each team. While fantasy baseball isn’t real baseball, the long-time insider approached it from a value perspective. If his prediction for Rangers first baseman Jake Burger comes to pass, then the Rangers and fantasy baseball players will both be winners.

He wrote that Burger is ranked 30th in preseason rankings at his position. Passan believes he has the track record to outperform that by a healthy margin.

“Two years ago, though, he hit 29 home runs and the year before that 34. If he can stay on the field — his career high in games is 141 in 2023 — he'll hit the ball over the wall plenty and put himself into Top-10 first baseman range at a far lower cost than those currently ahead of him,” Passan wrote.

Injuries were a big issue for Burger last season. He only played 97 games as he went on the injured list three different times. The wrist sprain he suffered in August never healed 100% and he underwent surgery this offseason. He reported to spring training healthy with no restriction and a new workout regimen that included Pilates.

He’s coming off a 2025 in which he also spent a week in the minor leagues to work on his swing after a bad first month of the season. By season’s end, Burger slashed .236/.269/.419 with a .687 OPS, including 16 home runs and 53 RBI.

Passan is right about the power — it’s there. But it was masked by deficiencies in Burger’s plate approach last season. He struggled with his chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate last season. Notably, his chase rate was 39.9%, which was in the fourth percentile in baseball.

The Rangers have Burger under team control for two more seasons after 2026. His value to the franchise's future may hinge on how well he's able to bounce back from the maladies that limited him in 2025.