Why Nathan Eovaldi Lost His Usual Rangers Consistency in 2026

For three years Nathan Eovaldi had been the Rangers’ steadying force in the rotation. That wasn’t the case in 2026. Why is the question.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texas Rangers’ best signing before the 2023 season might not have been Jacob deGrom. It might have been Nathan Eovaldi.

The right-hander from Alvin, Texas, the same hometown as Rangers legend Nolan Ryan, was a primary driver of the Rangers’ first World Series title while deGrom was, unfortunately, on the injured list. When his contract came up after the 2024 season, Texas felt a three-year, $75 million deal for Eovaldi was money well spent. And it 2025 it was.

But then came last season. The brilliance of 2025 — when he went 11-3 with a 1.73 ERA — was replaced by a pitcher that struggled with consistency throughout 2026 as he went 11-10 with a 4.20 ERA.

So, what happened? Let’s dive in.

Nathan Eovaldi in 2025

Nathan Eovaldi's MLB Percentile Rankings for 2025. | Statcast/Baseball Savant

As one can see above, Eovaldi was locked in during a 2025 season in which he made 22 starts but missed time due to a rotator cuff issue and pitched through two sports hernias that he revealed in spring training in February.

His Statcast MLB percentile rankings were a sea of red. The only one that wasn’t red was his fastball velocity, which was 94 mph on average. But Eovaldi relies more on a split-finger and four other offerings so a drop there isn’t that noticeable. His walk rate was elite at 4.2%. Three of his four pitch values were in the 95th percentile or better. Had he not gotten hurt, he could have challenged Detroit’s Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young. He was that good.

Most of his pitches had a plus-run value, except for his four-seamer which had a minus-3 against left-handers.

But something changed in 2026.

Nathan Eovaldi in 2026

Nathan Eovaldi's MLB Percentage Rankings for 2026 Per Statcast. | Statcast/Baseball Savant

Per the same graphic, plenty changed. His only run value in the red was his off-speed value, which was in the 99th percentile. His fastball value plummeted to minus-13. While he still maintained high chase rates, whiff rates and walks rates, his barrel rate and hard-hit rate dropped precipitously.

So, what happened? For one thing, his pitch mix changed significantly.

In 2025 he threw four pitches at least 20% of the time — the split-finger (31%, 87.6 mph), the four-seam fastball (23%, 94.1 mph), the cutter (20%, 90.5 mph) and the curve (20%, 75.8 mph). He threw his sinker and his slider a combined 6%.

In 2026 that mix changed markedly. He leaned into his split-finger far more (37%, 88.4 mph) and used his curveball more as a secondary pitch (22%, 76.3 mph). His cutter usage dropped (19%, 90.2 mph) as did his four-seam fastball usage (14%, 94.4 mph).

Nothing changed in his average velocity for any of those pitches. Only the usage changed.

Go back to 2023 and 2024 with the Rangers and his four-seamer and his splitter were his two primary pitches. What prompted the flip? His command? His velocity? Game situation? Advice from the pitching staff? The posterior arm inflammation that put him on the IL for a month? That’s unclear, but something changed.

Perhaps it was his arm angle. In 2023, 2024 and 2025 Eovaldi maintained an arm angle of approximately 32-33% per Statcast. In 2026 the arm angle went up to 37%. Did that small adjustment, or drift, cause his inconsistency?

Perhaps. But something led to Eovaldi giving up a career-high 24 home runs, to allow batters to hit .253 against him after allowing a .194 opponent batting average in 2025 and bloated his ERA above 4.00 for the first time since 2019. His goal for 2027, the final year of his contract, is to figure that out.