Why Rangers Playoff Math Seems Far-Fetched After Mariners Loss

The Texas Rangers had a series win in Seattle set up for them. Now, they head to Arizona in worse shape in both playoff races.

Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom. Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jacob deGrom did everything possible to help the Texas Rangers win their series with the Seattle Mariners on Thursday.

He carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning and even struck out 12 hitters, the most he’s ever struck out as a Rangers pitcher. But it all fell apart thanks to a leaky bullpen, and the Rangers left Seattle with a 4-3 loss.

Any realistic hopes that the Rangers might have had to win the American League West, and for that matter claim the final berth in the AL wild card race, may have been lost with it. Here’s why.

Rangers Dwindling Postseason Math

Texas Rangers manager Skip Schumaker. Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rangers enter Friday's action in Arizona three games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West race. The Astros wrapped up their series with Philadelphia on Thursday and won two out of three games. The Astros will be in Tampa Bay this weekend.

Each team has 15 games remaining. For Texas to win the division it must win four more games than Houston down the stretch The reason? The Astros won the season series, giving them the tiebreaker over the Rangers. Passing Houston in the standings seems far-fetched at this point.

Let's say Houston goes 7-8 the rest of the way. The Rangers would need to go 11-4. Texas has six games remaining on the road and nine at home. Given how terrible Texas has been on the road since the All-Star break, the Rangers almost need to run the table when they return to Globe Life Field to face the Boston Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Mets.

Even if Texas were to win all nine home games, the Rangers would still have to cobble together two more wins on the road. Texas is 32-43 on the road this season, but its 0-8-0 in road series since the All-Star break. The Rangers have squandered any trust the fan base might have in overtaking the Astros.

In the wild card race, the Rangers are only two games back of the Cleveland Guardians and hold a tiebreaker over them thanks to winning their season series. So, the Rangers only need to make up two games. That's a bit more realistic, but the Rangers are 6-16 in their last 22 road games.

Let's say the Guardians finish 8-7. The Rangers would need to finish 10-5. It means Texas would have to cobble together at least one win on the road and win all its home games.

It's not that there isn't a mathematical path. There isn't a realistic path. The Rangers must have some semblance of success on the road to make this happen. They can't count on winning nine home games to reach the postseason.

What their loss to Seattle on Thursday represented was their last realistic chance to win a division title or make the playoffs. From here, it's just watching their wild card elimination number fall from 13 to 0.