Breaking Down Rays' Current Chances of Dethroning Blue Jays in AL East

Will the Tampa Bay Rays be able to dethrone the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East?

Apr 16, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A Toronto Blue Jays hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

As the offseason continues for the Tampa Bay Rays, the team is hopeful to be a contender in the American League East after missing the playoffs the previous two years. 

With the competition being stiff in the division, the Rays have fallen behind a little bit in terms of being a contender. Tampa Bay has generally done a good job of being one of the best teams in the league at finding ways to win without spending a lot of money. 

However, with some of the teams in their division being some of the most financially strong franchises, keeping up has become difficult. Last year, there were three teams from the AL East that made the division, with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays all making it. 

So far this winter, most of the teams in the division have made some improvements, and there is still time for them to improve some more. Multiple teams have been linked to the top free agents available still, and Tampa Bay might have their work cut out for them in 2026

Will Leitch of MLB recently wrote about the Blue Jays being the team to beat in the AL East but highlighted that repeating as the division champion will be a challenge. 

Are the Rays a Threat?

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

It was a bit surprising to see that Leitch considers Tampa Bay to be a sneaky threat in the division, especially with a belief in their offense. This winter, the Rays traded Brandon Lowe, who was a significant contributor to the lineup. Without a clear replacement for his All-Star caliber campaign, it’s hard to say that this offense is going to be as good as it was last season. 

However, while the lineup might have some question marks, the pitching staff does look good on paper. This could be the unit that potentially carries them toward being a contender, but talent-wise, they still look a bit overmatched. 

When comparing the Rays to the Blue Jays, who are the perceived favorite in the division, there is already a lot more talent in Toronto. Furthermore, this is a franchise that could also be seeking to add one more of the top offensive stars this winter, which would further improve the team. 

Overall, despite trading away Lowe, Tampa Bay did make a couple of other good additions this winter to help improve in the short term. However, it is going to be hard for them to compete with the talented teams in what is shaping up to be the best division in baseball.