Rays' fWAR Projections Highlight Major Concerns for Franchise Offensively

Will the offense hold the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2026?

Dec 8, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash speaks with the media during the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings at Signia by Hilton Hotel. | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

With the offseason starting to come to a close, the Tampa Bay Rays are likely going to be done making any major moves at this point. If that ends up being the case, there are some concerns for the team. 

It has been a very busy winter for the Rays so far. This was a team that was expected to make some major changes, and that has been the case. The roster for Tampa Bay looks a lot different, and they have worked hard to try to find the balance between being a contender while looking toward the future. 

In the American League East, that is going to be no easy task. This is a division that has loaded up on talent this offseason, and the Rays might be lagging behind. While the team did add a couple of free agents this winter, a couple of notable trades weakened their chances. 

As Tampa Bay tries to figure out whether or not they can be a contender, recent fWAR projections on offense paint a pretty poor picture for them. As expected, following the trade of Brandon Lowe, this is a unit that could struggle. 

fWAR Projections are Concerning

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While fWAR projections are by no means a science, they are an indication of what a team could look like at this stage of the offseason. Currently, the Rays rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of offensive fWAR, and are surrounded by some unfortunate company. 

With the eighth-lowest batting fWAR, Tampa Bay is projected to struggle offensively, and in the AL East, that is going to be hard to overcome. In terms of just batting fWAR, the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Toronto Blue Jays are all projected to be in the Top 5. While the Boston Red Sox aren’t too far ahead of the Rays offensively, their pitching is going to be what carries them. 

Even though the goal might have been to snap their playoff drought this year, it seems unlikely based on what the offense looks like currently. Tampa Bay simply doesn’t have enough firepower to keep up with some of the best teams in their division and the league. 

While young star Junior Caminero is expected to have an excellent campaign, besides Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, there isn’t much help around him, barring someone exceeding the projections. Unfortunately, if Tampa Bay does struggle, it will likely be because of their lineup.