Rays Finally Have Biggest Postseason Weakness Addressed
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As the calendar starts to turn towards the final month of the regular season, the finish line begins to come into focus for the Tampa Bay Rays.
The National League has mostly sorted itself out, with several top teams looking like sure bets to make deep runs. Over in the American League, the picture is murkier as the Western and Central divisions have fallen flat, and it’s anybody’s guess who could take the respective divisions.
In the AL East, Tampa Bay has surprised many with a small-ball offense and strong pitching staff that’s kept them leading their division. As they continue to defy the odds, they also continue to become a real threat to make a deep playoff run. And there’s an aspect to this Rays squad missing from past Tampa Bay playoff baseball that has the chance to push them over the precipice.
After winning the AL Pennant in 2020, Tampa Bay embarked on three consecutive playoff appearances. Though featuring several of the same players from the squad that reached the World Series, these teams fell short and never made it past the divisional series.
Rays have the starting pitching to compete in playoffs
Critics pointed to a lack of offense that failed to translate from the regular season, but the underlying problem that ran through all three playoff runs lay in starting pitching.
One of the biggest factors that propelled the Rays to a World Series appearance in 2020 was a three-headed monster of a rotation. The dynamic trio of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton could match up against almost every team’s rotation and carried them far. In the years after, they missed that.
The 2021 ALDS relied on the fresh-faced Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz to pitch in the biggest games of the season and it proved to be costly. The 2022 AL Wild Card featured impressive pitching but proved futile because of the scoreless nature of the two-game sweep.
And the 2023 AL Wild Card was perhaps one of the worst displays of playoff pitching, as Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow imploded against a Texas offense that would eventually win it all.
Those October pitching woes have a chance to be a thing of the past in 2026. As playoff strengths and weaknesses begin to be assessed, it’s the Rays who line up as one of the toughest rotations to face.
Rays starting pitching depth is elite this season
Two Cy Young candidates, Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen, lead the way, along with the return of former staff ace Shane McClanahan and have put their rotation on the map. And when they went out and acquired Freddy Peralta, a longtime playoff performer in Milwaukee, the unit upgraded even more.
One thing playoff baseball teaches is that World Series winners usually have some of the best aces in the game. Offenses can go through fatal cold stretches, and bullpens can melt down, but it’s the workhorse, top-of-the-rotation arms that prove to be the deciders. We saw it last year in Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s brilliance, which earned him the World Series MVP, as well as in older examples, such as Madison Bumgarner’s ability to put the Giants on his back.
This is as good a chance Tampa Bay will have to put this advantage to use. The emergence of Rasmussen as one of the most dominant arms around gives them their true staff ace. Martinez’s changeup revolution at age 35, which has led to his best season yet, gives them a comfortable Game 2 starter. After them, wait, McClanahan and Peralta, two dominant arms each with years of playoff experience under their belts.
It’s the closest the Rays have come to a three-headed monster in the rotation since 2020. With good injury luck, a pitching staff of this quality could lead the Rays as far as it did six seasons ago.
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Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.