Rays' Key Slugger Projected to Take Step Backwards in 2026

Will a key player for the Tampa Bay Rays be able to replicate his great campaign from 2025?

Sep 26, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The hat and glove of Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (13) in the dugout during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With spring training coming to a close soon for the Tampa Bay Rays, the team is starting to prepare for Opening Day with the hopes of being a contender in 2026. 

Following a tough year in 2025, in which they missed the playoffs despite having a positive run differential, the Rays will be hoping for a better end result this coming year. Not being able to play in their home stadium undoubtedly had an impact on the team, but their division was very strong as well. 

While the campaign might not have gone according to plan, there were some major bright spots for the team. The emergence of star slugger Junior Caminero was one of them. The 21-year-old was able to become one of the best power hitters in baseball and looks like a player who could become a superstar. 

However, while it was Caminero who received a lot of the attention, they also had another player emerge as a key piece of the future, and that is first baseman Jonathan Aranda. The slugger was able to have a really strong year, and the Rays will be hoping for more of the same in 2026. 

Aranda Projected To See Stats Slip

Mexico infielder Jonathan Aranda | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The talented 27-year-old was able to have his breakout season in 2025, slashing .316/.393/.489 with 14 home runs and 59 RBI in 106 games played. His missing time in the second half of the year was certainly a reason why the team took a bit of a step back. 

Now, while Aranda is coming off a fantastic year, he will have plenty to prove in 2026. According to FanGraphs projections, the slugger is projected to slash .266/.350/.435 with 21 home runs and 80 RBI. 

While that would certainly be a good season, the Rays might be hoping for a bit more. That slash line would be a significant drop across the board for the slugger, and Tampa Bay is relying on him to be a significant part of the lineup. 

With Brandon Lowe being traded, the Rays are going to need players to step up offensively. Furthermore, they will also need guys who produced at a high level in 2025 to also replicate that. 

Even though the projected numbers for Aranda aren’t bad, the Rays are likely hoping for a bit more. Building the batting order for the next couple of years around him and Caminero seems to be the plan, but they will need both to prove they can be elite.