Red Sox $120 Million Star's Opt-Out Should No Longer Be Foregone Conclusion

For several months now, it's been something of a foregone conclusion in Boston Red Sox circles that Alex Bregman would opt out of the second and third years of his contract.

Really, it feels like there hasn't been a day since Bregman signed his three-year, $120 million deal at the start of spring training that his long-term future in Boston felt secure. And when he was tearing the cover off the ball in April and May, one could imagine dollar signs flashing in his and agent Scott Boras' eyes.

When the Red Sox have needed him most, though, Bregman has disappeared. It's hard enough to stomach the loss of Roman Anthony, who was probably their best all-around hitter at the time of his injury, but their second-best hitter has been AWOL ever since.

Is Alex Bregman definitely opting out?

At the end of the August series against the New York Yankees, one of the high points of the Red Sox's season, Bregman's OPS sat at .922. In 22 games since then, he's an astonishing 14-for-89 (.157) with just one home run and an OPS of .452.

Since the date of Anthony's injury, he's hitting .192 with a .564 OPS.

Would you have guessed that Bregman's OPS+ for the season (127) is five points below his career norm? Or that he sits behind players like Jeremy Peña, Cody Bellinger, and Tyler Soderstrom on the OPS leaderboard?

His defense has also taken a step back this season, from eight outs above average a year ago to just two this year. He's a negative on the basepaths, and defense and baserunning figure to keep regressing as he heads into his age-32 season.

Right now, Bregman is not a $40 million per year player. Nor is he playing like he deserves even $30 million per year. That doesn't mean he won't get the deal he's looking for on the open market, but each day his OPS plummets toward league average is an invitation for doubt to fester.

That ignores the crucial context of the leadership Bregman has provided. He's a mentor to the youngsters, especially Anthony, and he's even taken to sharing his wisdom with the pitching staff. On the whole, the Red Sox should still hope to retain him, but at what cost?

Certainly, the Red Sox have more important things to worry about right now, and so does Bregman. But if the team misses the playoffs, he will be one of the people who shoulders the brunt of the blame, and it shouldn't be assumed that he's destined for a bigger payday than the one he already got.

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