Inside The Red Sox

Red Sox's Updated Magic Number After Monumental Win, Astros Loss

So close they can almost taste it...
Jackson Roberts|
Sep 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (37) and relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) celebrate a win over the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Sep 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (37) and relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) celebrate a win over the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

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Boston Red Sox

Tuesday night was the best night the Boston Red Sox have had in ages from the perspective of clinching a playoff spot.

Not only did Boston claim a 4-1 victory over the first-place Toronto Blue Jays, but the Houston Astros stumbled in West Sacramento, suffering their fourth-straight loss against a plucky Athletics squad. For the first time since last Wednesday, the Red Sox finished the day with two games of separation over the first team out of the playoff picture.

Now 86-61, the Red Sox still have some work to do. But a playoff berth is within reach, and a strong finish to the Blue Jays series would put them in great position to clinch that berth before the final day of the regular season.

Red Sox's new magic number is three

Masataka Yoshida
Sep 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (7) hits a single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Because they own the tiebreaker over the Astros (84-72), the Red Sox's new magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to three. A combination of Red Sox wins and Astros losses that adds up to three would clinch a playoff spot for Boston, and so would a combination of Red Sox wins and losses after Thursday by the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers that adds up to three.

Go 3-2 for the rest of the week, and there's nothing any team can do to catch Boston. Go 2-3, and all the Red Sox would need is one more Houston loss against the A's or the Los Angeles Angels, or for at least one of those wins to be over the Tigers this weekend.

Boston will send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound on Wednesday against struggling future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, who allowed seven earned runs and didn't make it out of the first inning in his most recent start.

If the Red Sox win again and the Astros lose on Wednesday, their magic number will be down to one, and they'll have a chance to clinch their playoff berth by sweeping Toronto on Thursday. Fangraphs' updated playoff odds as of Wednesday morning gave Boston a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs.

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Jackson Roberts
JACKSON ROBERTS

Jackson Roberts is a former Division III All-Region DH who now writes and talks about sports for a living. A Bay Area native and a graduate of Swarthmore College and the Newhouse School at Syracuse University, Jackson makes his home in North Jersey. He grew up rooting for the Red Sox, Patriots, and Warriors, and he recently added the Devils to his sports fandom mosaic. For all business/marketing inquiries regarding Boston Red Sox On SI, please reach out to Scott Neville: scott@wtfsports.org

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