Red Sox Free Agent Lucas Giolito Projected to Sign With NL Contender

It's dragged out longer than anyone could have expected

Aug 26, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images | James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

While it's been apparent for months that Lucas Giolito wouldn't be re-signing with the Boston Red Sox, it's flummoxed many how long he's remained on the market.

Regular-season games begin next week, and at this stage of the offseason, Giolito remains the only starting pitcher, and frankly free agent at any position, who remains unsigned despite clearly proving with his performance last year that he deserves a significant role on a team.

How much longer can that continue? Eventually, some team is bound to need another dependable starter, and one insider believes there's a clear-cut best fit on the market at the moment.

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Insider thinks Giolito and Padres are natural pairing

On Tuesday, Robert Murray of FanSided wrote the following projection for Giolito under a heading labeled "Where do I think Lucas Giolito signs?"

"I’ve said for weeks that the San Diego Padres are a great fit considering 1) the questions in their rotation and 2) how A.J. Preller loves stockpiling pitching depth," wrote Murray.

"Adding Giolito this close to Opening Day, especially with the questions surrounding Joe Musgrove’s status coming off Tommy John surgery, would be a no-brainer move. Preller should consider it, and I believe he is. Adding Giolito would give the Padres the necessary depth it needs ahead of Opening Day."

Most who watched Giolito last season would agree that he was hugely instrumental in the Red Sox making the playoffs, but also that his 10-4 record and 3.41 ERA could have been a lot worse if a few more well-struck balls had landed in the field of play (or over the fence).

It would be deja vu in a somewhat unpleasant fashion for Red Sox fans if Giolito went to the Padres and excelled in the spacious confines of Petco Park, because that's precisely what happened with Nick Pivetta last season. Pivetta posted a 2.87 ERA and finished sixth in National League Cy Young voting after never bringing his ERA below four in his four Boston seasons.

It's out of Boston's hands at this point, but it will still be intriguing to see how much longer it takes for Giolito to find a deal to his liking.