Red Sox Starter Gets 3-Year, $61 Million Market Projection

What are the Boston Red Sox going to do?

May 26, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; General view of a Boston Red Sox hat during warmups prior the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox are going to have a decision to make shortly after the World Series wraps up.

The deadline for teams and players to make option decisions is five days after the World Series. For the Red Sox, this deadline is important when it comes to Lucas Giolito. Because he pitched over 140 innings this year, he has a $19 million mutual option with a $1.5 million buyout. Both Giolito and the Red Sox will have to decide whether both sides want to pick up the option, or see what happens on the open market, but it's a complicated choice.

For Giolito, on the surface it would make sense to decline the option and head to free agency. Spotrac currently has his projected market value to be just over $61 million across three seasons. Of course, landing a long-term deal with an annual value north of $20 million would be better than one year at $19 million.

The Red Sox face a tough decision

Sep 12, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

But, the end of the season is what complicates things. Giolito was great in 2025. He had a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts after missing the entire 2024 season. He wasn't able to pitch in the playoffs, though, as he dealt with an elbow injury. That's the kicker. After missing the 2024 season and logging a 4.89 ERA overall across the 2022 and 2023 seasons, will a team commit to him as the market value suggests or be scared away by the injury questions?

For Boston, it would absolutely make sense to have him back. He was great on the mound, helped stabilize the rotation overall, and was loved in the clubhouse. That $19 million number seems perfectly fair for Boston. This is especially the case because there's been chatter out there that the Red Sox could give him the qualifying offer just north of $22 million if the option is declined.

At this point, it all comes down to whether Giolito wants to bet on himself, or take the guaranteed cash. Initially when Giolito reached the 140-inning number, it seemed like a near-guarantee that he would hit the open market. It's not as simple anymore, though.

More MLB: Pete Alonso Emerging As 1B 'Possibility' For Red Sox