Sonny Gray's Early Market Projection With Red Sox Future Uncertain

The Boston Red Sox star is going to play in 2027. But what could he get in a deal?

Jun 23, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Boston Red Sox were fortunate to have Sonny Gray in the starting rotation in 2026, to say the least.

Gray was a star and put together potentially the best all-around season of his career, despite the fact that he's 36 years old and was in his 14th season. Gray led the league with 18 wins and pitched to a 2.72 ERA and a 149-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 169 innings pitched. His 2.72 ERA was the lowest mark of his career since he had a 2.67 ERA as a rookie back in 2013, although that was in just 12 appearances. In 2026, he pitched in 29 games.

Right now, Gray has a 2027 mutual option worth $30 million with a $10 million buyout. Initially, it wasn't clear if he would pitch in 2027, but Gray has decided that he will be pitching and he shared with The Boston Globe's Alex Speier that he's open to a return. If he were to return, he'd certainly cost a pretty penny. Right now, Spotrac has Gray's projected market value set at just over $63 million across two seasons.

If Gray could pitch just like he did in 2026, a deal in that neighborhood would absolutely make sense. But there are question marks. Gray is going to turn 37 years old on Nov. 7. In 2025, he had a 4.28 ERA in his final season with the St. Louis Cardinals. Shockingly, his FIP actually was lower in 2025 than it was in 2026. In 2025, his FIP was 3.39. In 2026, his FIP was 3.47. This is a stat that attempts to show just how good a pitcher is at preventing home runs, walks and hit by pitches, while causing strikeouts. It attempts to remove defense from the equation and show how impactful a pitcher is on their own.

Is The Projected Price Worth It?

Aug 26, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gray's FIP was actually higher in 2026 than it has been since 2021. That's just one metric, though. At the end of the day, Gray was excellent for Boston in 2026 and deserves another nice payday.

With Gray's mutual option, it would be shocking to see it utilized as is. First off, mutual options are rarely picked up. So, that doesn't bode well for it in general. But clubs can negotiate new deals as well. Option decisions have to be made within five days of the World Series coming to an end. If Gray does end up landing a deal in the neighborhood of the two-year, $63 million pact Spotrac projected, it may not be a bad idea for Boston to simply go to the righty and attempt to negotiate and scrap the option and add an extra year on to get close to the projected value.

There's a $10 million buyout in Gray's deal, so Boston has a lot of money attached to him anyway. While there are some questions, the positives far outweigh the negatives. The price of good starting pitching is high. Extending Gray would allow Boston to preserve the best rotation in the game, without attaching long-term dollars. That would be a positive.