Yankees' Aaron Judge Update Comes With Huge Implications for Red Sox

Make no mistake: Yankees still the favorites

Sep 16, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) before the game against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As the inevitable first-round rivalry matchup between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees draws near, Aaron Judge's health looms large over the series.

Judge only played seven games in September after returning from a rib fracture that cost him two thirds of the season. He sustained a calf strain in last week's series with the Minnesota Twins, then the Yankees put him on the 10-day injured list on Friday.

On Tuesday, the question of whether Judge would play against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium next week seemingly got answered. Yankees manager Aaron Boone told the world that he expected to be without his star — though nothing is final until the rosters are set.

Red Sox highly unlikely to face Judge; now what?

Apr 22, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts as he scores a run off a three vrun home run against the Boston Red Sox by third baseman Amed Rosario (14) (not pictured) in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Here was Boone's exact quote from Tuesday, which suggested that Judge's recovery would take place over a matter of multiple weeks.

“We’re planning on him not being a part of that,” Boone said, via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “But we’re also at a time of the year where … obviously we’d push it a little bit if that was in play. But that’s a week away. I’m not expecting it, but I’m not ruling it out, either.”

The most important words Boone said, though, were that the strain was considered "moderate grade." That almost certainly means Judge is dealing with a Grade 2 calf strain, which typically comes with a recovery time somewhere in the three-to-six-week range.

If the Yankees don't have Judge, which looked like a possibility for most of the last few months anyway, they still have to be considered the favorites. They're playing at home, their offense still has a good amount of firepower, and they'll throw Boston's Public Enemy No. 1 (Cam Schlittler) in Game 1.

However, when the three-time American League Most Valuable Player can't anchor the lineup, a team has to be classed as beatable. The Red Sox have a boatload of left-handed pitchers to neutralize the likes of Ben Rice, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

The Red Sox have their work cut out for them, without a doubt. But a Judge-less series feels much more up for grabs than it would have if the Bronx had its biggest Bomber.