National Analyst Makes Ridiculous Statement About Reds Current Roster

On Friday, ESPN.com's Derek Carty and Todd Zola put out a National League betting preview.

Carty predicted the Reds to win under 82 1/2 games. While that could certainly happen, his reasoning for it was one of the silliest things I've read this offseason.

"My projections are not sold on the Reds being an average MLB team, mostly due to question marks in their rotation," Carty wrote. "Andrew Abbott has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, Nick Lodolo's stuff declined after returning from injury last year and Chase Burns represents a significant injury risk. Throw in a weak bullpen, and this pitching staff nearly cracks the bottom five of projected staffs in baseball. THE BAT X projects 79.4 wins for Cincinnati, even after the addition ofEugenio Suarez."

Lets address it.

"Andrew Abbott Has Been Lucky"

Aug 30, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) throws against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

While I’m one of the biggest analytics guys out there, there are times when you have to step back, throw the numbers aside, and trust what a pitcher has consistently shown over time.

While the advanced metrics certainly don't love Abbott, he has now outperformed his expected metrics for three straight seasons. At some point, it has to stop being considered luck and start being a skill.

While he doesn't generate a ton of whiffs, Abbott is elite at allowing soft contact. His hard hit% is at 33.7, which ranks in the 93rd percentile in all of Major League Baseball. The average exit velocity against Abbott is just 87.8, good for the 84th percentile in the league.

There is something about Abbott that makes hitters not see the ball well coming out of his hand. He may not overpower them, but he knows how to get outs.

Not every pitcher fits perfectly into what these models expect and Abbott is clearly one of those. Three seasons and 413 innings is no longer a small sample size. It's a pattern. Abbott's consistency has made him one of the most reliable starters in the National League. Calling it "luck" three years in is lazy.

"Nick Lodolo's Stuff Declined"

Sep 14, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) throws a pitch against the Athletics during the first inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

While Carty is correct in saying Lodolo's stuff wasn't as sharp last season, 2025 was the best season of his young career. In fact, even if you look at FIP, which excludes luck among other factors, it was still Lodolo's lowest FIP of his career.

In 2025, Lodolo made the most starts of his career, threw the most innings, and had the lowest ERA. But instead of mentioning any of those three things, Carty only pointed out that Lodolo's stuff wasn't as sharp.

Once again, the results matter. He posted a 137 ERA+, a bWAR of nearly five, while allowing very little traffic on the basepaths, and showing elite command. At some point, when a pitcher continues to produce at a level, it's no longer about stuff. It's about how effective he is at getting outs.

"Chase Burns Represent Significant Injury Risk"

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns (26) throws a bullpen session at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Every pitcher who throws as hard as Chase Burns does has injury risk. In fact, every pitcher, in general, has an injury risk. Soft-tossing Wade Miley just had Tommy John surgery two years ago. Pitching is one of the most physically demanding motions in sports, and even the most durable and mechanically sound pitchers get injured.

In the same article, why didn't Carty write about injury risk with Paul Skenes when talking about the Pirates? He throws hard.

Could Burns get injured this year? Absolutely. But that risk exists for every pitcher, and there’s no fair reason to single him out as if he’s any different.

If the Reds do deal with injuries to their rotation, they have Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, Chase Petty, and Julian Aguiar waiting in the wings, none of whom were mentioned in the article. And one last thing, did he forget Hunter Greene was on the roster?

"Weak Bullpen"

The Reds return their top two pitchers from a bullpen that held their own in the 2025 season, Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan. On top of that, they added two left-handed relievers in Brock Burke and Caleb Ferguson, which is a huge upgrade considering they really didn't have a true left-handed specialist for most of last season.

They added veteran Pierce Johnson. Meanwhile, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips both return. That isn't even mentioning Sam Moll, Zach Maxwell, and Luis Mey who all have high upside when throwing strikes.

Am I saying the Reds' bullpen is the best in the league? No. But calling it "weak" without giving any additional context is silly.

The Reds could very well wind up winning less than 82 1/2 games, but I would be shocked if it's because of their pitching staff.

You can read their full betting guide here.

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