Why Nathaniel Lowe Could Have an Inside Track on a Reds Opening Day Roster Spot

When the Reds first signed Nathaniel Lowe to a minor league deal, my initial thoughts were that he probably wouldn't make the Opening Day roster. However, the more I look at the numbers, the more I think he might have the inside track to win a spot.

If there are no injuries to position players coming out of camp, I believe there will be two spots for the three of Will Benson, JJ Bleday, and Lowe.

I believe this roster battle will ultimately come down to which player the Reds trust most to produce against right-handed pitching. The table below compares each player’s OPS against right-handed pitching both last season and over the course of their career.

	2025 OPS vs RHP	Career OPS vs RHP
Nathaniel Lowe	.762	.789
Will Benson	.708	.755
JJ Bleday	.650	.713

When you look at their 2025 numbers as well as their career numbers, it's hard to imagine how Lowe gets left off the roster. While the Reds would need to be creative to find playing time for him since he doesn't play outfield, his .762 OPS against right-handers in 2025 and his .789 career OPS against them both lead this group by a significant margin.

Lowe's xwOBA against right-handed pitching is higher than not only Will Benson and JJ Bleday, but also Eugenio Suarez and Spencer Steer. 2025 was the first season in which Lowe had an OPS+ below 107. For reference, 100 is average. However, that was mostly due to how he performed against left-handers. Lowe hit 16 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season. Austin Hays was third on the team with 15 total home runs last season.

Lastly, Lowe is a veteran who has won a World Series, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove at first base. Reds manager Terry Francona loves guys with experience.

“I explained to him, you’ll be treated like the veteran you deserve,” Francona told Charlie Goldsmith. “We can’t guarantee you anything because I can’t do that. I told him I’ll undersell it because I don’t feel comfortable (selling) something to get him in here and then a month later it’s not what I said. He has been a good bat. He had some down times last year. But he’s not far removed from being an All-Star. You got him on a non-roster, it’s kind of hard to not let him come.”

Where Would He Play?

For days where the Reds wanted to go with an offense-first approach, they could sit Ke'Bryan Hayes, play Sal Stewart at third base, Lowe at first base, and have Eugenio Suarez be the designated hitter.

If Matt McLain needs an off day, Lowe could play first and Sal Stewart could slide over to second base. If De La Cruz needs an off day, McLain could slide over to shortstop and Stewart or Steer could play second base, while Lowe mans first.

This roster has a lot of defensive flexibility and if the Reds want the best 26 guys on the roster, I think Lowe is part of that.

He seems to be the lowest floor of the three players, and to me, the last roster spot might just come down to Benson and Bleday.

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