Reds Outlook Raises Questions, But One Player Is Projected for a Major Award

Opening Day for the Cincinnati Reds is just two days away. ESPN's baseball writers Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield teamed up to provide playoff odds, most likely award winners, and more for every big league team.

ESPN projects the Reds to go just 78-84 and Doolittle gave the Reds just a 20% odds at making the postseason and a 0.4% chance to make the World Series.

If the Reds were to win fewer games than a season ago after all of the offseason acquisitions, it would be extremely disappointing. All signs point to this team

While that outlook is certainly not encouraging for Reds fans, Doolittle does think Sal Stewart could win the National League Rookie of the Year award.

"There's just something about Stewart, whose charisma and grinder mentality will play well as he becomes one of the Reds' most recognizable players," Doolittle wrote. "His 18-game debut last year featured five homers and ugly strike zone numbers, but he's a much more complete hitter than that. As the Reds' every-day first baseman, Stewart has a wide-open runway this season to fully assume Joey Votto's mantle in Cincinnati. This year's NL rookie class looks strong, but Stewart is more than capable of challenging for this award."

Reds Lineup Change

Mar 12, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

While it sure felt like Eugenio Suarez would fit in the lineup right behind Elly De La Cruz, it seems manager Terry Francona has had a change of heart and is highly considering hitting Sal Stewart fourth.

“We’ll see," Francona told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon earlier this week. "I kind of reserve the right to make a lineup out that day. The reason we’ve been doing it is I think it sets Geno up to drive in more runs. Because I think with Elly hitting third, we can separate some strikeouts. But we also have a guy that can trail Elly, and I think Geno can clean up some of the mess there, which is the idea. I think it has a chance to be more productive for us."

Francona added that it’s not an indictment of Geno, but with Stewart’s ability to get on base and run, it could create more opportunities for Suarez to drive in runs from the five-hole.

If Francona doesn't change his mind, expect the top-five in the lineup on Opening Day to be as follows:

TJ Friedl
Matt McLain
Elly De La Cruz
Sal Stewart
Eugenio Suarez

Garrett Crochet will get the ball for the Red Sox, while Andrew Abbott takes the mound for the Reds on Opening Day. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.