After Latest Huge Rookie MLB Deals, Should Rockies Extend TJ Rumfield?

This is a risky decision, but could turn out for the best for the Colorado Rockies.

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This is a dangerous question, but the topic has been circling baseball all season. Four different elite prospects have inked long-term deals with clubs this season, all with less than three weeks of big league experience.

Hundreds of millions of dollars have flown toward unproven rookie prospects, two of whom had never set foot on a big league field. This begs the question: Should the Colorado Rockies make the same leap of faith with elite rookie TJ Rumfield?

So far this season, Rumfield has been one of the most productive Rockies hitters this season. He's batting .304/.365/.464 with two homers and eight RBI over 17 games. He was acquired over the offseason for reliever Angel Chivilli, and he's been worth much more so far.

TJ Rumfield Has Been a Team Leader in Most Categories To Begin His Rookie Campaign

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Before we consider whether Rumfield is worthy of an extra-early risky extension, we must assess the precedent of these deals. This season, Colt Emerson (Mariners) and Cooper Pratt (Brewers) both inked deals before making the big leagues. More recently, Konnor Griffin (Pirates) and Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) have signed incredibly long and expensive deals.

Griffin and McGonigle are the top two prospects in baseball, but Rumfield never got that high on the board. In fact, he was never listed on the New York Yankees top 30 prospects list, but hit 15+ homers, 27+ doubles, and drove in 71+ runs over the last two seasons of Triple-A ball. He also batted .288 over those two seasons.

Looking at the precedent of such deals, some have gone well, some have not. Colt Keith and Jackson Chourio both signed contracts a month apart in the offseason before the 2024 season, before making their major league debuts. Chourio has posted nearly identical first two-seasons in the big leagues, and has been worth every penny of the deal.

Keith has played well at times, but has yet to find his stride. Luis Robert signed a deal in January of 2020 before his major league debut, and his career has been turbulent to say the least. He hit 38 home runs in 2023, but has played more than 110 games in a single-season once.

This strategy of protecting young, high-caliber prospects was used sparingly before last season. There are major successes like Salvador Perez, who signed a deal 50 days into his big league career, and Evan Longoria, who signed 24 days into his career.

If He Continues To Hit Well, a Deal Should Be Done With Rumfield

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There are also a plethora of failed attempts at this strategy. If a team wants to give it a shot, they must be right. The Pirates and Tigers committed nearly $300 million and 17 years combined between their two contracts. These are huge investments that can pay huge dividends if you hit, but could make you lose your job if you're wrong.

For Rumfield, he won't require the type of money McGonigle and Griffin brought this season. If he continues to play well into the middle stage of this season, it may be wise to go ahead and lock him up. Colorado has yet to use this strategy, but this might be the time to try it out.