Kansas City Royals Reliever Lucas Erceg Presents Interesting Conundrum for Future of Bullpen

The prized acquisition of the 2024 trade deadline has not been able to find footing in 2026, and it begs the question: Is he a part of the future bullpen?

Jul 30, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro takes the ball from relief pitcher Lucas Erceg (60) after he loaded the bases with the Minnesota Twins in the ninth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baseball is a fickle sport, one year a player could be a steal at the trade deadline, then the next season that same player drew the short stick. For the Royals, that player is Lucas Erceg. In 2024, the Royals swung a deal with the Athletics to acquire Erceg for the final stretch of the season to make the postseason. The deal, at the time, was a home run for the Royals as Erceg came in and dominated in 23 games with the Royals accruing 1.4 of his 1.7 season fWAR with the team.

Fast-forward two seasons, and Erceg is now arguably the worst setup man in baseball. With his struggles this season, it presents an interesting dilemma for the Royals, who are figuring out what the future bullpen will look like. Let's discuss Erceg's conundrum with the Royals bullpen.

Everything is going Bad for Erceg in 2026

To say 2026 has gone wrong for Erceg might be underselling his season. Not much has gone right for him. He has an ERA of 6.23, worth -0.6 fWAR, and is 12-for-18 on save attempts this season. For a guy who was tasked with being one of the proverbial heads of the bullpen in 2026, it has been a fall from grace for Erceg.

We discussed Erceg's issues earlier this season, and pretty much everything discussed there applies three months later. He isn't getting swings and misses, is walking way too many batters, and is a worse version of his 2025 season. Part of the issue is that his fastball, despite being high velo, has declined in terms of stuff+ (from 107 in 2024 to 91 in 2026), and his overall pitch locations are sporadic or in very hittable parts of the zone.

It is such an odd thing to discuss with baseball players, but on paper, Erceg should still be a solid reliever. He still maintains his velocity, gets ground balls at a high rate (50.7%), and limits hard hits. Erceg has gotten a tad unlucky at times with an absurd .350 BABIP. At a minimum, he should be a 0.0 fWAR reliever, but something isn't right.

The Mental side of the Game

Kansas City Royals pitcher Lucas Erceg (60) takes a breath before throwing a pitch in the ninth inning of the MLB Interleague game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Kansas City Royals at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. The Reds won 4-3 on a walkoff hit by Blake Dunn, scoring Spencer Steer from second base in the 10th inning. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

As much as baseball is a physical sport, it might actually be more of a mental one. Relievers will always have some of the toughest jobs on the field; they get thrust into borderline lose-lose situations, and they need a short memory if they give up a big hit. Erceg just hasn't been able to bounce back once the floodgates opened, as shown by a 65.4% LOB%.

The issue is that the floodgates have been open for a majority of the season, outside of a little hot stretch. This is where the conundrum begins. Erceg has multiple minor league options available and if he is a part of the future plans for the Royals, it might be smart to use one of them this season to get him back on track.

Physically, he is still able to perform at a high level, but something with his pitching philosophy changed in 2025, and he needs to find a spark of his 2024 self.

2024 Erceg and 2026 Erceg are two very different relievers

Writer's note: This section is more opinion than stats as it is discussing mentalities.

We can look at the numbers between the two seasons in the subheadline, but that was already done in an article earlier this season (which is linked in the first section of this article). To be a back-end bullpen arm, relievers need to have that killer instinct to get the tough outs. Erceg seems to have lost that a little bit.

In 2024, he was lighting the MLB sphere on fire by helping the Royals reach the playoffs and even being a crucial part of them advancing past the Wildcard series. He was your quintessential closer type. A guy who had elite stuff, missed a ton of bats, and could get out of trouble when push comes to shove. That was Lucas Erceg in 2024.

Fast-forward to 2026, and it seems like that Erceg is now a pitch-to-contact relief pitcher rather than the closer of the future for the Royals. It could be a philosophy change as he does have one of the better infield defenses in baseball, when they are healthy, and that is fine, but that philosophy doesn't fit what he brings to the table.

Conclusion

Lucas Erceg isn't a free agent until 2030, but he is a 31-year-old reliever who is in a weird spot in his career. He has three minor league options available, and with how he has pitched this season, the Royals should be tempted to use one to see if a mental reset is what he needs to get back on track. Despite the struggles of this season, he still has the tools to be a good reliever, but something hasn't clicked as it did in 2024, and fight for his chance to be in the bullpen for the foreseeable future.