Former Detroit Tigers Top Prospect Battling for Rotation Spot This Spring

The Detroit Tigers are coming off a great season, and they are looking to return to the playoffs in 2025. In order to do so, they will need their former top pick to have a big season.

Casey Mize was drafted first overall out of Auburn University in 2018. The right-hander made quick work of the minor leagues as he made his MLB debut during the shortened 2020 season.

2021 was Mize's true rookie year, though. During that season, he made 30 starts, threw 150.1 innings, owned a 3.71 ERA and his WHIP was a low 1.137. He did not win any awards, but it is still a respectable rookie campaign.

In 2022, the then-25-year-old started just two games before tearing his UCL and getting Tommy John surgery. That injury paired with a back surgery kept him out of the entire 2023 season, as well.

Mize made his return in 2024. The 25-year-old made the team as the fifth starter in the rotation. It was an up-and-down year for the former top pick. He finished with 102.1 innings pitched, a 4.49 ERA and he allowed opponents to hit .290 off him.

What was the difference in his healthy rookie season and his healthy 2024?

Per Baseball Savant, Mize had his breaking run value fall from 11 to -5 and his offspeed run value dropped from 3 to -2. Additionally, the righty allowed opponents to find 2.1% more barrels last year, his hard-hit percentage went up 4.6%, his chase percentage went down and so did his whiffs. His velocity saw an increase, but overall it was a tough year.

As for this upcoming season, Mize is in another battle to earn a spot in the rotation.

Tarik Skubal is coming off a Cy Young year, and he is going to be the best pitcher on the Tigers once again. Detroit was also able to sign Jack Flaherty, and he will be the team's No. 2 starter. The third spot will most likely go to Reese Olson, which leaves two openings in the rotation.

Alex Cobb was signed to a one-year deal, but he is in danger of missing opening day due to an injury. However, when he comes back one of those two open starting jobs will go to him.

The Tigers have a few pitchers fighting for those two starting jobs during Spring Training while Cobb rehabs.

Jackson Jobe is a player to keep an eye on. He has put in the work during the offseason by adding to his arsenal of pitches. The top prospect pitched in just two regular season games, but Detroit trusted him enough to have him pitch in the playoffs. The postseason outings were not kind to him, but there is a lot of potential with Jobe.

Kenta Maeda could earn a spot in the rotation. He is coming off one of the worst years of his career, though. His ERA was above 6.00 and he was worth -1.7 Wins Above Replacement. Along with that, he did not pitch in the playoffs.

As for the rest of the competition, it will come down to Matt Manning, Ty Madden and Keider Montero. These are all players Mize has beaten out once before.

The Tigers need their fourth and fifth starters to have good seasons if they are going to return to the top of the AL Central and make the playoffs. Now, these pitchers do not have to be All-Stars, but they can not be forcing the bullpen to eat a bunch of innings, either.

Mize is a player that has the ability to attack hitters in the zone and force weak contact. 2024 was a down year for him, but the talent is there. If he can just miss a few more barrels while forcing hitters to chase out of the zone a little bit more, he is going to find the success he had when he was a rookie.

We will find out in Spring Training what Mize has to offer. But if he can bounce back in 2025, the Tigers will be in great shape.

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