Predicting Tarik Skubal’s Eventual Contract Based on Other Elite Arms

What reasonably could Skubal be looking at once he is a free agent?

Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates striking out Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh in the sixth inning of ALDS Game 5 at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There has been plenty of speculation surrounding the Detroit Tigers' ace, Tarik Skubal, and his looming free agency. Where will he end up, and what is it going to cost? Well, as a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner, it is safe to say that the contract will be substantial.

But what are some of the other top pitchers around baseball making right now? Some of the most recent notable contracts that come to mind are regarding a pair of arms from the reigning world champions (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell), as well as Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease.

Snell is the highest paid player (by year) as his $182M deal averages out to $36.4M per year, but the Dodgers made a bigger commitment to Yamamoto as the terms of his deal are for a longer period of time (12 years) and for $325M, just over $27M a year.

The fastest pitch thrown by a Detroit Tiger in 2025.

May 25 — Tarik Skubal hurls a 103 mph fastball for the last pitch in his 13 K complete game shutout against Cleveland.
pic.twitter.com/MWEAGEI5nA

— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) December 30, 2025

Crochet doesn't have near the resume that Skubal has wracked up but he is a 2x All-Star and had it not been for the Tigers' pitcher, he would have arguably taken home a Cy Young Award this year. Regardless, his value was put on paper in April of this year, which brought him home $170M over the course of six years, $28.3M a season.

The newest member of the Blue Jays, Dylan Cease, signed a monster deal this offseason when they locked him down for $210M for seven years of service. Cease has been a strikeout machine in his career, which is why they decided to pay him on average $30M a year. The only comparable pitcher (awards-wise) on this list is Snell, but will Skubal take home a bigger payday?

Skubal's Career vs. Snell's

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Skubal:

•  AL Cy Young Award Winner: 2024, 2025 (First AL pitcher in 25 years to win consecutive Cy Youngs).
• AL Pitching Triple Crown: 2024 (Led AL in Wins, ERA, & Strikeouts).
• All-MLB First Team: 2024, 2025.
• All-Star: 2024, 2025.
• AL ERA Leader: 2024, 2025.
• MLB Strikeout Leader: 2024.
• AL Wins Leader: 2024.

Snell:

• 2x Cy Young Award Winner: 2018 (AL) with Tampa Bay Rays, 2023 (NL) with San Diego Padres.
• All-Star: 2018.
• All-MLB First Team: 2023.
• World Series Champion: 2025.

Snell might be a world champion now, but that is ultimately the only upper hand that he has over Skubal at this point. Based on Snell, Cease, and Crochet, It seems more than reasonable that Skubal is going to be looking at a yearly rate well over $30M a year if he doesn't surpass the $36M threshold that Snell has set.

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