Where the Tigers' Playoff Odds Stand One Week Before the Trade Deadline
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The Detroit Tigers have been one of the more interesting teams this season across Major League Baseball. Once down and out in the AL Central standings with very low playoff odds, Detroit controls its own destiny, especially with the trade deadline looming, just one week away.
Having not lost a series in the second half of 2026, the Tigers are coming off a four-game series split with the Kansas City Royals, which they could've easily won as well. Now, Detroit turns its attention to the Baltimore Orioles and Athletics, as there are only six games left before the deadline.
If the Tigers were to sweep both Baltimore and the Athletics, that would bring them to a 56-56 record, making trade deadline decisions that much more confusing. But if they don't play well this week, the front office might have to bite the bullet and start selling their biggest assets.
Updated Playoff Odds Going Into Orioles Series
According to FanGraphs, the Tigers currently hold a 31.6% chance of making the playoffs, a 18.9% chance of winning the AL Central, in which they sit six games out of first, and a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs as an AL Wild Card team.
Baltimore sits one game ahead of Detroit in the AL Wild Card standings, so winning this series is a must for improved playoff odds. While the Tigers sit over five games out of first place in the division, they're only 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with four teams sitting ahead of them.
Starting pitching for Detroit is a large reason the Tigers are still seeing semi-high playoff odds, as the likes of Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Troy Melton have been dazzling seemingly every start. The rotation staff is good enough to carry the load in the playoffs, should they get there.
The Tigers have been reported to be in the market for a bullpen arm as the trade deadline approaches. The future of Skubal in Detroit depends on the team's performance this week, as highlighted by former MLB general manager Jim Bowden on Sunday, July 26.
"The Tigers have not decided whether they'll trade him or hold onto Skubal," Bowden said on GM Territory on X (formerly Twitter). "If they continue to win, and if they believe that they can get into the playoffs and/or win the division, they're going to hold onto Skubal.
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Dominic Minchella is a 2024 Eastern Michigan University graduate with a BA in Communications, Media, and Theatre Arts and a Journalism minor. He covers Major League Baseball for On SI and spends his free time watching games and sharing his insights.