Before Adding Trade Deadline Bat, Twins Need to Unlock Royce Lewis

Minnesota may add bullpen help before the trade deadline, but its biggest offensive boost could already be on the roster: Royce Lewis.

Minnesota Twins first baseman Royce Lewis (23). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As the trade deadline approaches, the same question keeps following the Minnesota Twins: Do they need another bat?

It is a fair question. But it may not be the right one.

If Minnesota plans to stay in contention through August and September, its biggest priority appears to be the bullpen, not another offensive piece. The real challenge is not adding a hitter. It is getting more from the one already on the roster.

Few players represent that idea better than Royce Lewis.

On the surface, Lewis has had a disappointing season. Through 70 games, he is hitting just .211 with an 88 wRC+, a significant drop from the impact Minnesota expected when he entered the year as one of the centerpieces of the lineup.

But those numbers only tell part of the story.

The tools that made Lewis one of baseball’s most promising young hitters have not disappeared. What has changed is how opposing pitchers have learned to attack him.

The problem isn't power. It's contact.

Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When a hitter struggles the way Lewis has this season, the simplest explanation is usually that he has lost bat speed or is no longer making quality contact.

Neither appears to be the case, per his Statcast page.

Lewis is averaging 74.8 mph in bat speed, the highest mark of his career. He also owns a 41.4% Hard-Hit rate and a 12.2% Barrel rate, numbers that still describe a hitter capable of producing impactful contact.

The problem starts before the ball is ever put in play.

Lewis is missing too many swings.

His contact rate has fallen from 76.2% last season to 68.2% this year, while his swinging-strike rate has climbed to 14.6%. That difference explains much of why his offensive production has fallen below expectations, even though the quality of his contact remains strong when he does connect.

The question is no longer whether Lewis has lost his power.

The real question is why he has struggled to consistently get to the point of contact.

Pitchers changed the way they attack him

The pitch-type data reveals a clear pattern.

Lewis has struggled most against four-seam fastballs. Against that pitch, he owns a -4 Run Value, a .186 expected batting average (xBA) and a 32.2% whiff rate. He also has not found consistent answers against sliders and changeups, both of which have generated whiff rates above 40%.

Sinkers tell a different story.

Against that pitch, Lewis owns a .313 xBA and a .556 xSLG, producing the type of damage Minnesota expected to see much more often throughout the season.

That contrast suggests the issue is not Lewis’ ability to generate power or bat speed. Instead, it shows how pitchers have adjusted their sequencing to attack a specific part of his offensive profile — and how Lewis is still searching for the right counter.

Royce Lewis | Baseball Savant.

The heat maps illustrate that adjustment. In 2023, Lewis consistently produced across nearly every area of the strike zone against pitches other than sinkers. This season, that profile has shifted. Pitchers have found more success attacking him at the top of the zone and especially on the outer half, where his production has dropped sharply.

The result is a hitter who still punishes mistakes — as his numbers against sinkers demonstrate — but has had far more difficulty responding when opponents execute a plan built around four-seam fastballs and breaking pitches away from his strongest areas.

The trade deadline can help. Royce Lewis can raise the Twins' ceiling.

Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis (23). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Twins could still add bullpen help before the trade deadline. That remains their clearest need if they want to stay in the playoff race.

But adding one or two relievers would solve only part of the equation.

The rest depends on what happens inside Minnesota’s clubhouse.

If Byron Buxton stays healthy, if Ryan Jeffers remains with the team and regains consistency at the plate, and, above all, if Lewis turns his underlying tools back into production, the outlook for the Twins’ offense changes completely.

Minnesota does not need Lewis to become a different hitter. It simply needs him to become the hitter he has already shown he can be.

That is why, before adding another bat at the trade deadline, the Twins need to unlock the one already on their roster who could provide the biggest offensive boost.