Dean Kremer or Zebby Matthews: Who Deserves the Fifth Spot in the Rotation?

Kremer’s performance after arriving in Minnesota and Matthews’ potential present the Twins with an important decision heading into 2027.

Minnesota Twins pitcher Zebby Matthews (52). Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I don’t think there’s any debate that Taj Bradley was the biggest revelation in the Minnesota Twins’ starting rotation in 2026. He completed a historic season with more than 200 strikeouts —205, to be exact— and led the team in several important categories, including fWAR (2.8), innings pitched (178 ⅓), strikeout rate (10.35 K/9), quality starts (15), and the lowest BABIP allowed (.270) among the five pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings.

But if we go a little further and talk about progress, I think there were two interesting stories. First, the leap we saw from Zebby Matthews, especially in some of his starts during the second half of the season, and, on the other hand, Dean Kremer’s arrival with some uncertainty at the trade deadline, as he ended up exceeding expectations in the final stretch of the campaign.

Kremer made 10 starts and 0.9 fWAR over 54 ⅓ innings, while considerably reducing his home run rate to 0.99 HR/9. Matthews, after a difficult start between May and July, when he posted a 4.25 xFIP, showed some improvement with a solid August, although he then lost momentum in his final starts in September. Even so, after the All-Star break, his strikeout rate per nine innings increased from 7.25 to 8.81, and he posted a 3.71 xFIP, a figure that better reflects his ability to limit damage than the high 5.26 ERA that appears in his traditional statistics.

Matthews or Kremer, who should remain in the rotation?

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews (52). Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s a good question, although a lot of things can change between now and the start of the 2027 season. As you know, Pablo Lopez should return to the rotation and, alongside Joe Ryan and Bradley, will form the top three arms. Bailey Ober should occupy the fourth spot, so the competition between Matthews and Kremer would be for the fifth spot.

Minnesota Twins pitcher Dean Kremer (13). Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Based on performance, Kremer seems to have a slight advantage for several reasons. First, his experience and ability to bounce back in 2026 after arriving in Minnesota. However, we also have to consider that his best season in fWAR was 2.6, a mark he recorded in 2025. Matthews, on the other hand, is 26 years old and is one of the organization’s best bets to become a solid starter in the near future. He has had the opportunity to start 39 games over the past two seasons, including 23 in 2026, but his progress still hasn’t been enough.

In fact, his fWAR fell from 1.3 in 2025 to 0.7 this year and, although his breaking pitches continue to show improvement, he dropped from the 73rd percentile to the 23rd in Chase%, while his percentiles in K% and Whiff% fell from 68 to 41 and 29, respectively. His expected statistics are even more concerning, as he remains well below the league average in Barrel% (4th percentile), Hard Hit% (7th percentile), xSLG (22nd percentile), and xERA (34th percentile).

These inconsistencies tip the scales toward Kremer, but I suspect the Twins will give Matthews some opportunities in the starting rotation. That would be a reasonable decision, especially because they could also turn to him as a reliever to strengthen the bullpen and help cover the innings left by Kremer’s or Ober’s starts.