Inside The Twins

PECOTA projections have Twins as clear favorites in AL Central in 2025

The Twins should have a good chance to win a weak division despite their 2024 collapse.
Will Ragatz|
Apr 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton (25) celebrates with shortstop Carlos Correa (4) after scoring against the Chicago White Sox during the ninth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Apr 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton (25) celebrates with shortstop Carlos Correa (4) after scoring against the Chicago White Sox during the ninth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are the pretty clear favorites to win the AL Central in 2025, according to the annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus.

The Twins are forecasted to win 86.2 games in PECOTA's simulations. There's a solid gap between them and the next tier of three teams, the Royals (81.1), Guardians (80.4), and Tigers (79.4). The White Sox are down at 61.5 projected wins.

Minnesota wins the division nearly 50 percent of the time in these simulations, with the Royals and Guardians both in the 18-19 percent range. The Twins' total playoff odds, including wild card seasons, come in at just under 63 percent.

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The Twins are also given a 4.7 percent chance to win the World Series, which ranks ninth in MLB. The Dodgers lead the way at 20.7 percent, more than double the next-closest team (the Braves at 9.7 percent). The Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, and Astros are the four American League teams with better championship odds than Minnesota.

By the way, if you're unfamiliar with PECOTA, it's an algorithm that was developed by Nate Silver more than 20 years ago and is updated every offseason. Here's how Baseball Prospectus describes it:

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance. PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.

Despite their 40-game collapse down the stretch of last season, as well as their total lack of offseason additions since then, the Twins have the on-paper roster talent to be the team to beat in their division this year. They've got a talented offense led by admittedly injury-prone stars Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis, as well as Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Will Castro, and others. They've got a deep starting rotation fronted by Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. And they have a bullpen, led by Griffix Jax and Jhoan Duran, that a different projection system believes is the best in baseball.

If the Twins can stay relatively healthy in 2025, they should have a pretty good chance to win a weak division and return to the postseason.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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