The Biggest Free-Agent Mistake the Minnesota Twins Must Avoid This Winter

Bell’s production changed expectations, but the Twins still have to decide how much his value weighs for 2027.

Minnesota Twins designated hitter Josh Bell (56). Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Minnesota Twins signed Josh Bell in December of last year for $7 million and one year, with a mutual option of $10 million for 2027 and a $1.25 million buyout, they did not expect to solve any defensive problem.

The investment was backed by Bell’s offensive impact and the expectations surrounding his swing. In fact, the Twins bet on his ability to provide power, with the 41 home runs and 134 RBI he had accumulated over the previous two seasons when he played for three teams, despite having posted a negative 0.2 fWAR and averaging 102 wRC+, a production slightly above average.

Bell exceeded expectations with a season of 21 home runs, 96 RBI, 106 wRC+ and his sixth consecutive campaign with a slugging percentage above .400. He combined those power numbers with his best BABIP (.289) since 2022 to build a positive 0.7 fWAR. The performance far surpassed the results he had produced at the plate when the Twins showed interest in his veteran switch-hitting profile during last year’s offseason.

Why Shouldn’t the Twins Let Josh Bell Go?

Minnesota Twins second baseman Kody Clemens (2) celebrates with designated hitter Josh Bell (56). Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Let’s start with what, whether we like it or not, is going to influence the Twins’ decision on whether or not to extend Bell’s contract. According to ZiPS projections at FanGraphs, Bell should maintain much of his power and his ability to make contact for his age-34 season in 2027, while the system projects a stable BABIP and similar discipline to his recent seasons.

FanGraphs

The best part I see here in the projections in Bell’s favor for the 2027 season is that he is projected to maintain his profile from recent seasons, which leads me to think that the system could still be considering his physical skills. And one of them was the ability to crush fastballs from both sides of the batter’s box. Bell finished with the sixth-best batting average (.304) and the eighth-best slugging percentage (.489) among hitters who recorded at least 200 plate appearances against fastballs throughout the season.

Josh Bell vs fastballs 2026 | Statcast

In that Top 8, Riley Greene and Bell were the only hitters who hit more than 20 home runs all season, although Bell beat Greene 13-12 in home runs against fastballs.

Opponents attacked Bell with fastballs on 50.7% of pitches and with breaking balls on 25.5%, for a combined percentage of 76.2%, to which he responded with .477 and .400 slugging percentages, respectively. So Bell knows where he will have to work, as his whiff rate took a slight jump from 30.0 to 30.6 in 2026, but most of the inconsistencies came against offspeed pitches, against which he hit just .193, with four home runs and 56 strikeouts over his last two seasons.

So we also cannot rule out that he could even improve at the plate in what should be a decisive season for Bell, even if he doesn't end up in the heart of the Twins’ lineup. We have seen what can happen, especially when hitters go through their age-34 and age-35 seasons. We also cannot forget that Bell has playoff experience and has been a successful hitter in the past, with a 1.250 OPS in 12 games and 45 plate appearances with the San Diego Padres in 2022 and the Miami Marlins in 2023.

One of the closest examples in free agency is George Springer, who completely collapsed in his final contract season with the Blue Jays after a solid campaign at the plate in 2025, when he was 35 years old.

Josh Bell says he wants to be back with the Twins next season.

Caught up after the season finale with the Twins DH who hit 21 home runs this year and led Minnesota with 96 RBI. pic.twitter.com/sjjDCg52iq

— Ren Clayton (@Ren_Clayton) September 28, 2026

If the Twins are consistent with their own view of Bell’s projections and with what the 34-year-old veteran meant inside the clubhouse on a team with several young rising figures, I believe they should not make the mistake of letting him go.