Yankees Must Be Wary of Potential Negative Regression From Star Reliever

Can the New York Yankees star relief pitcher overcome some concerning metrics?

Apr 14, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Luke Weaver (30) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees have had a lot of obstacles to overcome thus far in the 2025 MLB regular season.

Injuries have been the No. 1 concern, having to deal with several key contributors being sidelined from their pitching staff and in the lineup.

It has led to some disappointing performances, especially on the mound.

Carlos Carrasco was designated for assignment, opening a spot in the rotation that will need to be filled. There are a few in-house options who could be called upon to fill the void.

Right now, the only starting pitchers the Yankees can rely on to perform each time they take the mound are Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.

That puts immense pressure on their bullpen, where they have some issues to overcome as well.

All-Star Devin Williams, who was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers to be the team’s new closer, has been disastrous. He was removed from the closer’s role in hopes of getting on track, but he has shown zero signs of turning things around.

New York was fortunate enough to have another option to turn to in Luke Weaver, who got off to a historic start with his dominance on the mound.

May 5 against the San Diego Padres was the first time he was scored against in the season, going his first 13 appearances without allowing a run.

On the season, he has a 0.53 ERA across 17 innings with 16 strikeouts. He has an incredible 764 ERA+ and has already produced a 1.1 WAR after having a 1.9 in 62 appearances and 84 innings last year.

Weaver performed at a very high level during the postseason in 2024 when he took over for Clay Holmes as the team’s closer, but there is one underlying statistic that hints that some regression could be on the horizon.

His batting average on balls in play is a miniscule .146, which is some good luck thus far given the league average is .293.

Almost all of the advanced stats used on FanGraphs, such as different FIP numbers, are nearly 1.50 higher than his current FIP. ERA projections are at least 3.08 higher than his incredible raw number.

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), Weaver is near the bottom of the list when it comes to Stuff+ by pitchers who have recorded at least three saves this season.

It is something to keep an eye on, as his Stuff+ score is the same as Jorge Lopez of the Washington Nationals, who has an ERA of 7.41 on the year and Baltimore Orioles pitcher Charlie Morton, who has a 9.38 ERA.

Weaver has never been a Stuff+ monster and still performed at a high level in 2024 when he recorded a 100 on the nose.

To avoid a fall off, he needs to find a secondary pitch. His fastball has a Stuff+ of 102, but his slider, cutter and changeup have Stuff+ scores of 81, 80 and 94.

It will be something to keep an eye on.

With Weaver taking over a more prominent role as the closer, he will be under the microscope more attempting to compensate for the underwhelming performance of Williams to this point.

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