NL East Ace Should Be Yankees' Backup Plan If Tarik Skubal Trade Doesn't Happen

Sandy Alcantara isn't better than Tarik Skubal, but he brings some things the back end of the Yankees rotation can't.

A Tarik Skubal trade might not happen, so the Yankees must consider this backup plan. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The big fish of the MLB trade deadline—and, potentially, free agency—is Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. The Yankees were already the best team in the American League without him, and landing the big lefty widens the talent gap between them and the rest of the AL. Few trades would impact them as much as that one.

Of course, with so many looking for Skubal's services, the Yankees could be outbid throughout the process, even if they make a solid offer.

Another name the Yankees should consider if they miss out on Skubal is Miami Marlins ace, Sandy Alcantara. They have been linked to him for years, after all.

Sandy Alcantara should be on Yankees' trade deadline radar

Alcantara is a few years removed from his Cy Young season, where he posted a 2.28 ERA in 228.2 innings, but with the 30-year-old southpaw in his walk year, this could be the time the Marlins pull the trigger and deal him elsewhere.

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara would be a terrific backup plan if the Yankees' Tarik Skubal trade dreams are crushed. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Alcantara is in the last year of the extension he signed before 2022, under which he inked over $56 million over five years. However, he does have a club option for next year, according to Spotrac. He's making $17,300,000 this season, but it's actually an $11 million luxury tax hit that would, of course, be prorated by the deadline.

One thing about Alcantara is how regularly he pitches deep in games. The veteran pitcher has made 17 starts this year. He has pitched six or more innings in 14 of them. In his most recent start, he pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball. He struck out four and walked three, but his bread and butter was weak contact. The Rangers had an average exit velocity of 87.8 mph off of him.

While Alcantara won't ever have high strikeout numbers, sporting a 17th percentile 17.6% strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant, his ability to generate soft contact, which he did against the Rangers, is what he does best outside of pitching deep in games. He has a 67th percentile 87.9 mph average exit velocity, a 73rd percentile 5.8% barrel rate, a 71st percentile 35.4% hard hit rate, and a 68th percentile 45.8% ground ball rate.

The upside of trading for Alcantara is that he probably won't command the prospect haul that Tarik Skubal would. Skubal, one of the best pitchers in baseball, will have a bevy of suitors, including the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, and Brewers.

These same teams could also be in on Alcantara. It's just likely the Marlins wouldn't get as many top prospects and young, cost-controlled players as the Tigers will when they eventually pull the trigger on a trade deadline fire sale and let their ace go. Alcantara is your quintessential innings eater, but he's not the caliber of pitcher that Skubal is, and probably never was, even at his best.

Alcantara vs. the back end of Yankees' rotation

What the Yankees would have to consider is how Alcantara would fit into a playoff rotation. He wouldn't take the ball before Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, and Max Fried in a postseason game, but what they have to ask themselves is, is he better than Carlos Rodón?

Rodón is the wild card of the rotation right now and has struggled in the postseason. Just like Alcantara, he wouldn't get the nod in game one over Schlittler, Cole, or Fried, but on paper, Miami's ace may be better suited to give length and quality innings than the southpaw they landed before the 2023 season.

Sandy Alcantara might be the better playoff arm for the Yankees than Carlos Rodón. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The thing with Rodón vs. Alcantara is that the conversation could go either way. The argument could be made that there is more value in Rodón's ability to strike out batters. Alcantara's strikeout numbers are among the lowest in the league. Of course, if the Yankees wanted length and needed a guy who would save the bullpen in a big game, that is Alcantara's strong suit.

Another thing they have to ask themselves is whether he's better than Ryan Weathers and Will Warren. Alcantara has a 4.01 ERA in an MLB-leading 110 innings with a 1.3 WAR. Weathers, who already looked like he was headed to the bullpen once Fried returns, has a 3.95 ERA in 86 2/3 IP and a 1.2 WAR.

Alcantara is better than Weathers, but it's debatable whether he's better than Warren. Warren has a 3.45 ERA in 78 1/3 IP with a 0.7 WAR; however, he is winless with a 4.50 ERA across three June starts, so maybe the argument isn't as open-and-shut after all.

What Alcantara has that Warren doesn't is veteran experience: that and the ability to pitch deep in games. In a lot of ways, this conversation isn't so different than the Rodón one. Warren is frequently removed at or before the sixth inning, while Alcantara is more of an old-school pitcher with his ability to log innings the way he does.

With Alcantara, it's just a matter of whether the Yankees believe he's better than the back end of their rotation. He just might be.