Projecting the Yankees Playoff Roster for the American League Division Series

The Wild Card Series couldn't have gone much better for the New York Yankees.

After spending much of September resigned to a second consecutive meeting with the Boston Red Sox to get the right to challenge the AL East champions, they blasted them in back-to-back emphatic victories to send their bitter rivals home before the calendar turned to October and gave themselves a crucial extra day to collect themselves heading to Tampa for the ALDS.

And as they turn the page, they get a new opportunity to fill a 26-man roster. After another five days have passed since setting the Wild Card Series roster, will they be able to get key injured players over the finish line? That's one of many questions that'll need to be asked ahead of Saturday's series opener.

The biggest decisions for Aaron Boone

To Judge or not to Judge: Part II

Aaron Judge wanted to play in the Wild Card Series. He went against his manager's words in the media as a leverage ploy. He believed that, regardless of what medical logic said or how his rehab had progressed, he'd be able to play against the Red Sox.

He clearly wasn't, but the hope remains that the ALDS will be in play. In the days following the decision to leave him off the wild card roster, Judge has resumed live at-bats and is running on a treadmill, but he still isn't running the bases. It's unclear what stage he needs to get to for activation.

On Friday afternoon, manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Judge's status for the ALDS is "to be determined," adding, "he'll be working out today," per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.

Based on that info from Boone, it's still unclear whether he'll be medically cleared to DH by Saturday, but does that help the Yankees? They would be playing without Ben Rice and Luis García Jr. in two of the games against lefties. It would also cause a logjam, threatening several of the team's best players on the bench at any given time.

An added twist in this series is that three of the five games are billed at Tropicana Field, a turf field with a reputation for causing lower-body soft-tissue injuries. For a guy with a soleus strain in his calf, a common precursor to an Achilles tear, this seems like a complete non-negotiable to put him in right field at the Trop.

Even if he is medically cleared to play right field by Wednesday, exactly three weeks after the injury, the team will need to weigh whether having him be unable to start (or removing Rice or García as a DH) is worth it.

How many pitchers will be rostered?

In the Wild Card Series, the Yankees had just 10 pitchers on the roster, a testament to their belief in their starting pitching and also viewing it as a situation where, when push comes to shove, you're not going to need those back-end guys unless it's a complete blowout or we go deep into extras.

It's a different calculus for this series, despite having the additional off-day after Game 1, technically giving you the type of rest you rarely get during the playoffs. 10 pitchers won't fly again, but I don't think they're even considering going back to a full 13 with the bats at their disposal.

The debate is going to be 11 or 12, which will then bleed into who's getting that roster spot and who will come off the roster to make room for them.

Is Giancarlo Stanton just a decoy?

I get that the amount of true leverage opportunities that made sense was way lower than anyone anticipated against the Red Sox. But it was a bit startling to see Giancarlo Stanton not get a single at-bat in that series. Even after both games were decided, you'd think they'd give him an at-bat to get him his first real hitting experience since April, no?

Some have theorized that Stanton's presence on the roster was merely a decoy against the lefty-heavy Red Sox bullpen. We saw Red Sox manager Chad Tracy elect to go to Garrett Whitlock instead of a lefty in the crucial sixth inning of Game 2, despite Austin Wells and Ryan McMahon due up, out of fear that Boone could use Stanton or Paul Goldschmidt as a pinch-hitter. That fear influences decisions, and we saw Whitlock completely torpedo the game from there.

Does that fear really work against a Rays team with significantly fewer lefties? If he isn't healthy enough to actually trot to the plate for a pinch-hit appearance multiple times in a series, that feels like a big waste of a roster spot.

How many lefties should the bullpen feature?

Tampa Bay's big weakness is that they don't hit lefties very well, which is something you have to think will factor into the bullpen's roster construction.

Before the Wild Card Series, Rodón looked to be working out of the bullpen as a multi-inning option. But for the division series, Boone told reporters that the plan is for Rodón to start in Game 3 or 4, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

How about the injured Ryan Weathers; could he be in the bullpen? He seemed to be close to making the previous roster and gets an additional five days minimum. Ryan Yarbrough and Brent Headrick probably remain on the roster, but does Tim Hill get added, or is he redundant with the plethora of lefties?

This could also boil down to how many pitchers the team keeps in general and whether they opt for pitching or hitting versatility.

Projecting the ALDS roster

Catchers

In: Austin Wells, Ali Sanchez
Out: J.C. Escarra

Ali Sanchez did not appear in the Wild Card Series, despite multiple pinch-hitting opportunities for Wells, who had a great series. The Yankees seemed afraid to put a close game in the hands of their backup catcher to call the game.

I'd think the staff trusts J.C. Escarra more, but the fact that he wasn't included on the wild card roster makes it unlikely that a change happens.

Infielders

In: Luis García Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr., George Lombard Jr., Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe
Out: Amed Rosario

If the Yankees add a pitcher, they'll likely have to take a chunk out of this part of the roster. That someone should be Amed Rosario.

He got a surprising start at third base in Game 1, but as he has all season, he didn't make an impact as a platoon bat. With significantly fewer lefties in Tampa's arsenal, I don't see a place for him. At least Anthony Volpe has defensive value and can be used as a pinch runner.

Outfielders

In: Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones, Heliot Ramos, Trent Grisham
Out: Jasson Domínguez, Duke Ellis

The team trusted Trent Grisham enough to play center field in Game 2 despite him looking athletically limited. We'll see what things look like this series, but I'd be surprised if they took him off the roster.

The intrigue is whether they decide to get creative and add a pinch runner to match the Rays' speed on the basepaths. After all, they are extremely bad at limiting the run game. This would likely only happen if Stanton were truly a decoy and Judge were out, especially since they will probably add a pitcher.

DH/Utility

In: Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, José Caballero
Out: Aaron Judge, Max Schuemann

For now, I'm going to assume Stanton didn't get into one of the games against Boston because the team was looking for a very specific opportunity, most likely facing Aroldis Chapman in a tie game or trailing. It'd be a bit odd to admit to the decoy at this point, anyway.

I see a world where Judge is on the roster, but that world is quite limited. They didn't need him to beat Boston, but they might need him to beat Tampa. Based on how this is going, I'd assume that if the Yankees advance to the ALCS, you'll see Judge give it a go then. Until he can play right field full time, it just isn't worth it.

Rotation

In: Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón
Out: Elmer Rodríguez

With the off days, the Yankees actually only need three starting pitchers, but it sounds like they will use their entire Big 4 against the Rays.

On Friday, Gerrit Cole was announced to start Game 1; Cam Schlittler is lined up to start Game 2, and Rodón could pitch Game 3 or Game 4, with Max Fried going in the other game. It would culminate in Schlittler pitching a potential do-or-die Game 5.

Bullpen

In: Ryan Weathers, Will Warren, John Schreiber, Ryan Yarbrough, Brent Headrick, Paul Blackburn, David Bednar
Out: Carlos Lagrange, Tim Hill, Luis Gil, Michael Fulmer, Clarke Schmidt (IL), Yerry de los Santos

If there was a series you need Weathers for, it's this one. Against a team without many impact bats against lefties, and with Rodón likely being used as a starter at some point, the southpaw's ability to return from injury and get big outs would be a massive addition to the bullpen.

Ultimately, I see the Yankees going with 11 pitchers and 15 position players. Hill was my first player out on the bubble, and I could realistically see him being rostered, but the team would have three lefty options in the bullpen to use before him.

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