Yankees Announce ALDS Game 1 Starting Pitcher: Will Gerrit Cole-Carlos Rodon Decision Backfire?

In the immediate aftermath of the New York Yankees’ Game 2 win in the AL Wild Card Series against the Boston Red Sox, fans wondered who would get the start in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, which is set for first pitch on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Would it be Gerrit Cole, who would’ve been on the mound for New York if the wild-card round went to a decisive Game 3? Or would it be Carlos Rodon, who had a strong second half of the regular season?

On Friday morning, the Yankees announced that Cole will start in Game 1 in Tampa. Cole will look to outduel the Rays' right-handed starter, Drew Rasmussen.

It’s a risky move for the Yankees to pick Cole over Rodon to lead off the division series against the Rays. According to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, Tampa Bay has the fourth-best OPS against right-handed hitters (.752) this season, but the 25th-best OPS against left-handed hitters (.679).

That is a stark difference, but the Yankees are putting their faith in Cole, who has a career 2.93 ERA in 12 postseason starts with New York. However, fans aren’t wrong to question the decision, considering how things have gone recently for both pitchers.

Yankees are taking a huge gamble rolling with Gerrit Cole over Carlos Rodon

If I were manager Aaron Boone, I would’ve gone with the hot hand in Rodon, who is coming off an excellent September. The 33-year-old southpaw posted a 3-0 record and 1.42 ERA across four starts. He also held opponents to a .141 batting average, .430 OPS, and only surrendered two home runs.

In fact, one of Rodon’s starts came down the stretch against the Rays on Sept. 22, when he threw eight innings of shutout ball, allowing three hits and striking out eight hitters.

He also didn’t give up any free passes (walks), which was the first time he did that all season. Rodon also generated 15 swinging strikes against Tampa Bay, which further illustrates how good his stuff was.

However, Rodon’s postseason success in the pinstripes hasn’t been great, with a 6.92 ERA in six starts. That said, with how he’s pitching lately, who's to say he doesn’t put those postseason troubles to bed against Tampa Bay?

Meanwhile, Cole was on the opposite end of Rodon in September. The 36-year-old starter struggled mightily to keep the ball inside the ballpark, allowing nine home runs. Opponents also hit .265 and had an OPS of .839 against Cole.

That said, Cole has been successful against the Rays this season, which likely also factored into Boone’s decision. In three starts, he has a 1-1 record and a 2.50 ERA. The Rays didn’t have much success at the plate either, hitting a mediocre .188.

Cole’s last start of the season came against Tampa Bay at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 23. He gave up three hits, three walks, two earned runs (one home run), and struck out eight in 5.2 innings.

The Yankees went on to win that game, 9-2. Therefore, hopefully Cole can keep the ball inside the park and limit the free passes. If Cole does that plus goes at least five innings, the decision to roll with him won’t look bad.

However, if Cole implodes and gets hit around early, the Yankees might have no choice but to use Rodon out of the bullpen, which will raise the question of why you didn’t go with the southpaw in the first place.

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