Yankees' Biggest Advantage Against the Rays (And the Biggest Concern)

There are plenty of reasons to believe, but also some reasons to be skeptical about the Yankees' chances in the ALDS.

Sep 24, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees shortstop George Lombard Jr. (96) scores a run against Tampa Bay Rays catcher Liam Hicks (34) on a wild pitch during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After defeating the Boston Red Sox in two games in the AL Wild Card Series, the New York Yankees will now advance to the American League Division Series to face the No. 1 seed Tampa Bay Rays.

These two teams played during the final week of the regular season in a four-game set at Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees won three times. Yankees fans hope the team's recent success against the Rays could be a positive sign.

That said, for the Yankees to take down the AL East champs in the American League Division Series, they'll need to lean on their biggest advantage while overcoming a notable concern.

Biggest advantage: Left-handed pitching

The Rays are good at a lot of things. Even things they aren't known for, like power, are things they can provide from different parts of the lineup in a pinch. They're a well-rounded ballclub that won 98 games en route to a division title for a reason.

But they are shockingly bad at one thing, and it could play directly into the Yankees' hands. For whatever reason, they are completely neutralized against left-handed pitching.

Carlos Rodón vs. Gerrit Cole is a very interesting discussion to have for the Yankees’ Game 1 SP vs the Rays.

TB has 3 above average hitters vs LHP on the season (Caminero, Yandy, Vilade). That goes up to 7 vs RHP.

Cole may start but Rodón should be a big factor regardless. pic.twitter.com/Fav3UVKP40

— Tristan (@YankeesFocus) October 1, 2026

The Rays make a lot of contact no matter who they're facing, but the little ability they have to do damage is primarily against righties. Their power outputs are significantly higher against them. They chase less, and they get on base more.

Against lefties, it's a team full of batters swinging pool noodles. Looking team-wide, there aren't many Rays who hit that well against them:

FanGraphs

Junior Caminero is a beast, Yandy Diaz is more than playable, and you've got two platoon guys in Ryan Vilade and Victor Mesa Jr. After them? They'll be starting a bunch of functionally mediocre hitters with no alternative. Not even listed here is big deadline acquisition Liam Hicks, who's equally poor at left-on-left hitting.

This could play into the Yankees' hands, who have two All-Star-caliber lefty starters and a bunch of bullpen options at their disposal. Max Fried is certain to pitch Game 3, but the possibility exists that Carlos Rodón, who shut out the Rays for eight shutout innings a week ago, could pitch in both Game 1 and Game 4 on normal rest. However, Gerrit Cole's presence complicates that possibility, but it's an avenue.

If Cole wins out in the end, you can add Rodón to a plethora of lefty bullpen options that could even include Ryan Weathers after he narrowly missed the bus for the Wild Card Series. Brent Headrick (who, albeit, has reverse splits), Ryan Yarbrough, and even Tim Hill, who was left off the Wild Card Series roster, could factor in.

Last year, the Yankees got snowed under by an avalanche of Blue Jays offense in two games in Toronto and lacked the fortitude to come back from that. This year, with no Luis Gil starting Game 1 shenanigans, they're better equipped to drag Tampa into low-scoring affairs, but is that really where you want them?

Biggest concern: Tropicana's house of horrors

The biggest fear for any Yankee fan entering this series isn't about the two teams themselves; it's the ballpark.

If this series goes the distance, three of the five games will be played at Tropicana Field. It's the first time the Yankees are playing a postseason game at the venue, as the 2020 ALDS was played at a neutral site due to COVID-19.

History, for a variety of reasons, is not on the Yankees' side.

Starting with the shenanigans of the Rays' home field, the Yankees are a putrid 34-45 at Tropicana Field since 2016. That's a 70-win pace extrapolated across a full season. That's pretty drastic when you factor in that the Yankees are 416-345 at all other road venues in that span, an 89-win pace.

Compare that to the record at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are 54-37 against the Rays at home in that span, a 96-win pace. Their home record against everyone else is a similar 99-win pace. So, what's the deal with the disparity?

The reasons for this are plentiful. The turf not only serves as a boost for a ground-ball-heavy Rays team that uses its speed to beat out infield singles and lay down perfect bunts, but it has also caused the team to think about long-term preservation due to several soft-tissue injuries that have occurred there. Could this be the difference between rostering Aaron Judge or not?

Other quirks, such as the baseball-colored roof, are statistically proven to cause more difficulty in reading fly balls for opposing teams than for the Rays, who play 81 games there. It's a built-in home-field advantage, which the Rays have taken advantage of to an incredible 55-26 home record, a 110-win pace, and the best home record of any team in four years.

Lastly, there's one other piece of history that goes against the Yankees here. Under Aaron Boone, the Yankees are 8-7 in playoff series. They are 7-0 with home-field advantage, but 1-7 without it. The lone victory? 2020 against the Cleveland Guardians in front of zero fans.

While I'm skeptical of a real home-field advantage crowd-wise in St. Petersburg this weekend, history says the Yankees don't fare as well when they don't have the Bronx behind them.

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