Yankees Even Considering Tim Hill Return Is Colossal Mistake

The first week of the MLB offseason has been as quiet as usual, even with the looming lockout likely to prompt more action in the coming weeks of November. Still, there's been scores of rumors floating around for the Yankees.

In the bullpen, the team has extended a qualifying offer to David Bednar, but has also shown interest in bringing back other pieces of last year's sturdy unit.

According to the New York Daily News, the Yankees not only have checked in on long reliever Ryan Yarbrough and expressed strong interest in re-signing breakout setup man Paul Blackburn, but they also have some interest in bringing back Tim Hill despite leaving him off the playoff roster.

While Hill's overall Yankees tenure has been an objective success after his low-cost acquisition in 2024, the 36-year-old is no longer trustworthy for a team with real championship aspirations, and the team should look elsewhere to fill his lefty specialist role.

Tim Hill's Recent Regression Makes Him Untenable For 2027 Yankees

Hill's career felt as good as over in 2024 when he was released by the historically bad White Sox in mid-June following an awful start to the season, but Matt Blake and the Yankees saw something in the unorthodox lefty, signing him to a Major League contract two days later and completely overhauling his pitching style.

He's always been a low arm angle lefty, but the deception was muted when he was throwing a flat high-80s fastball almost half the time. The Yankees instead had him throw significantly more sinkers, which helped him prevent damage significantly better and buff up an already elite ground ball rate.

Over the next year and a half, Hill excelled with pinpoint location of his sinker, riding that one pitch to a 2.68 ERA in his first 111 innings as a Yankee through the end of the 2025 season. He was one of the best at what he did, holding lefties to below the Mendoza Line with just one home run.

Despite this, there were warning signs. He was allowing harder contact in 2025, and after expertly limiting barrels in 2024, he suddenly gave up seven home runs to right-handed batters. The deception wasn't there.

In 2026, the wheels fell off. While he still held lefties to an admirable .213/.265/.346, his stuff was a lot flatter, and his location got worse and worse, prompting the opposing platoon to crush him to a degree you rarely see.

In 104 plate appearances by right-handed batters against Hill, they slashed .293/.365/.543 with seven home runs and nine extra-base hits. Out of over 350 pitchers with that sample size, he was one of the 20 worst in almost every category against RHH.

From that measure, it's clear that Hill can only be used in very limited circumstances at this stage in his career, but even the under-the-hood numbers are turning against him. He's generating way less chase and is now firmly below average in all quality-of-contact metrics. The sinker that revitalized his career is now betraying him, especially with the location.

Tim Hill Pitch Location, 2026 — Baseball Savant

His startling regression saw him go from a high-leverage lefty to being completely left off the playoff roster, being surpassed by pleasant surprise Brent Headrick and Ryan Yarbrough. In a setting where teams can mix and match, there are limited opportunities for a flawed player like Hill.

He's still solid against left-handed hitters and can roll a ground ball double play with the best of them, but in a world where above-average relievers can be generated out of nowhere, the Yankees can do a lot better than the guy who was dead last in fWAR last year among relief pitchers.

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