Three Reasons Why the Yankees Are the Overwhelming AL Favorites

New York (26–12) was one of just two American League teams with a winning record entering Thursday. What's behind the Bombers' fast start?

Aaron Judge leads the majors with 15 home runs. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Until they show some signs of slowing down, the Dodgers will remain the yardstick against which the rest of the sport measures itself. But if March through the beginning of October is essentially a tournament to determine who is capable of taking them down, then we might already have our answer in early May.

The Yankees, in first place with a 26–12 record, are the class of the American League. And they’re only getting stronger, as three-time All-Star righty Carlos Rodón, recovering from elbow surgery, is scheduled to make his season debut Sunday, and 2024 AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, recovering from Tommy John surgery, is not far behind. Here are three reasons New York is looking ready for October.

They can hit

It helps to employ Aaron Judge, but the rest of the lineup is clicking, as well. First baseman Ben Rice leads the AL in batting average (.343), on-base percentage (.455) and slugging percentage (.759), for a 1.214 OPS—also, obviously, tops in the league. Judge and Rice have combined for more home runs (27) than the Brewers (24) and the Giants (23).

Cody Bellinger has a .924 OPS and has played excellent defense in left field, and José Caballero has played so well at shortstop that the Yankees were forced to demote the anointed starter at that position, Anthony Volpe.

DH Giancarlo Stanton has suffered the only significant injury to the group, a right calf strain that has kept him out of action since late April, and outfielder Jasson Domínguez has been adequate with flashes of more. (Editor's note: Domínguez left Thursday's game after crashing into the outfield wall to make a catch.)

Second baseman Jazz Chisholm and third baseman Ryan McMahon are still striking out too much, but both have started making more contact recently and could be poised to break out. 

They can pitch

Here is where the Yankees’ advantage is most remarkable. Without two of their top three pitchers—and with a bullpen that still has some holes—they have still boasted the best ERA (3.04), the fewest barrels per plate appearance (4.1%) and the fewest balls allowed in the air (52.1%).

Max Fried is an ace. Cam Schlittler might be the most dominant sophomore pitcher in the sport. Will Warren is striking out 11 batters per nine innings. Ryan Weathers, whom New York acquired from the Marlins this winter for four prospects, might be the odd man out when Cole returns—and Weathers has a 3.03 ERA! 

That bullpen will get better when Weathers slots in, but even without him, it has a 3.16 ERA, third best in the sport. If Fernando Cruz can cut down on his walks, if Camilo Doval can induce softer contact, if Jake Bird can generate more swings and misses, this could be an elite unit. 

No one else can do either

The rest of the league is in the process of collapsing. Of the six AL teams that made the playoffs last year, only the Yankees were above .500 entering Thursday. 

The Red Sox—a popular preseason pick to win the division—have been so bad that they’ve blown up the coaching staff. The Blue Jays—who snatched the division from the Yankees last year, steamrolled them en route to the pennant, and needed more than eight games’ worth of baseball to fall to the Dodgers in the World Series in seven—have been only half a game better. Cal Raleigh, who in 2025 produced perhaps the second best offensive season by a catcher in the last half century, has a .633 OPS for the Mariners this year. The Tigers just lost their ace, Tarik Skubal, to elbow surgery, and might wish their No. 2, Framber Valdez, could take a week or two off, as well. The Guardians’ position players have been worth nearly –2 WAR. 

The Rays are only a game behind the Yankees, and they’re always a threat. But their run differential of +15, to New York’s +79, suggests the gap is a bit wider than that. And no one else is even close. 

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