Over or Under? Early Bulls Win Projections Scream Rebuild Mode

Obvious statement alert: The Chicago Bulls aren't built to win in 2026-27.

Ever since Bryson Graham took over the franchise, the new front office leader has made clear that the Bulls are starting fresh. He's embraced the word "rebuild," unlike his predecessor, and has made player development the immediate priority.

Do the Bulls have some exciting pieces in the mix? Absolutely. Caleb Wilson could put together a legit Rookie of the Year campaign. Meanwhile, both Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis have shown encouraging growth in recent years. Buzelis, in particular, feels like someone who could take another significant step forward in Year 3.

Nevertheless, learning how to win basketball games takes time. For as many fun highlights and flashes as there will be for this young group, their lack of experience is bound to show up in the win-loss column. And that's why the early projections for their win total shouldn't drop any jaws.

Early Win Total Projections for the Chicago Bulls

Mar 16, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey (3) and forward Matas Buzelis (14) high five during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With free agency winding down, sportsbooks have started to release their win total projections for the majority of teams around the league. Many of these numbers will change in the coming weeks and months as final roster moves are made and bets are placed, but it's hard to imagine the Bulls' tally moving all that much.

To be sure, Chicago does still have an open roster spot available. But the idea that whoever fills that seat is good enough to alter their win total is hard to believe. It's far more likely that the player signed to this final deal is either another project piece or a veteran locker room guy. Taj Gibson is still available!

So, how good are the Bulls currently expected to be this year? Two of the most popular sportsbooks are leaning toward believing they will have their worst season of the 2020s.

FanDuel Sportsbook – Over/Under 29.5 wins
DraftKings Sportsbook – Over/Under 27.5 wins

The last time the Bulls failed to win 30+ games was during the shortened 2019-20 season, when they went 22-43. They also won only 22 games the year prior in 2018-19.

The only teams to have a worse win total projection on DraftKings are the Milwaukee Bucks (24.5), Brooklyn Nets (24.5), and Sacramento Kings (21.5). FanDuel is clearly a little more optimistic, giving the Bulls two more wins and putting the Grizzlies (28.5), Clippers (28.5), Bucks (25.5), Nets (25.5), and Kings (22.5) behind them.

Again, considering where the Bulls are at, this doesn't feel like the most shocking assessment. It actually comes off as a pretty safe call, as the Bulls' current roster has some pretty glaring holes. But let's not forget that the league has made swimming at the bottom of the barrel a far less appealing life to live.

The new NBA lottery rules have made it so that the league's worst three teams have fewer lottery balls than the squads that sit 4-10. In other words, the Bulls may actually have a reason to now strive for mediocrity. In other other words, finishing in the 20s may be counterintuitive to their rebuilding plans!

This is likely why we have seen the Bulls make a few moves to add some impactful veterans. The acquisition of Nic Claxton will give them a serviceable rim protector and good roll man for Josh Giddey. They also re-signed Zach Collins to a multi-year deal, who has played a well-rounded brand of basketball when healthy.

The most meaningful signing, however, was Norman Powell. The reigning All-Star guard will offer a level of sharpshooting and clutch scoring experience that isn't present anywhere else on the roster. He will undoubtedly help win this young and athletic group some extra games.

Let's also not forget to mention the impact that Tiago Splitter could have. Still a work in progress as a head coach, Splitter is coming off a year where he vastly exceeded expectations. The interim head coach led the Trail Blazers to a No. 7 seed and a playoff berth. To be clear, the chances of that happening in Chicago this year are uber thin, but it still spoke to Splitter's ability to get the most out of a developing group.

None of this is to say that Bulls fans should be rushing to hammer the over. However, the team will likely have an incentive to push for 30, and they certainly have a few pieces who could help them accomplish that goal.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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