Realistic Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Chicago Bulls This Season

The Chicago Bulls finally opted for the fresh start that fans wanted for years.

Following the conclusion of another middling season, the front office regime of Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley was shown the door. Billy Donovan also chose to walk, paving the way for fresh blood both upstairs and on the sideline.

Executive VP of basketball ops Bryson Graham and head coach Tiago Splitter are now running the show. They have since gone on to embrace a full-fledged rebuild, one that did get an immediate jolt when the lottery gods blessed them with the high-upside Caleb Wilson.

Nevertheless, the 2026-27 season is a blank canvas, which means there is a wide range of possibilities that can take place in the coming months. Let's try to go over the best and worst-case scenarios for Year 1 under new leadership.

To be clear, we're going to keep things realistic. That means no MVP votes for Caleb Wilson or Game 7 buzzer-beaters for Matas Buzelis. The whole point is to think about the positives and negatives that could actually take place.

Best Case Scenario

Nov 4, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey (3)and guard Tre Jones (30) celebrate team's win against the Philadelphia 76ers at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Chicago Bulls are heading into 2026-27 with minimal expectations. What happens in the win-loss column clearly isn't a major concern for Bryson Graham and his new front office. If it were, we would have seen even more drastic moves made to improve this roster over the last handful of months.

At the same time, the NBA lottery system has undergone a massive shift. The organizations at the bottom of the barrel are no longer rewarded with the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick. Instead, teams that finish in the 4-10 range will have even odds to secure a top slot. One has to imagine the moves to add veterans like Norman Powell and Nic Claxton were made with that in mind. As much as they can help show these young players the ropes, they can also raise the floor of the team as a whole.

Speaking of which, the best-case scenario might very well be that the Bulls are alive in the Play-In hunt. It feels backward to say after the last couple of seasons, but it's a perfectly acceptable place to be in this new NBA. Likewise, it would signal that their many young players are competing at a higher level than expected, particularly their two athletic wings.

In a realistic ideal world, Caleb Wilson shows steady progress throughout the year and is the kind of instant culture changer this franchise has long needed. This doesn't have to mean he leads the Bulls to a winning record in Year 1, but it should mean he welcomes big moments and looks comfortable against NBA size and speed.

Wilson winning Rookie of the Year is a legitimate possibility, especially when considering the immediate workload he will be dealt. Again, the Bulls don't need him to be an All-Star from the jump, but this year would be an obvious win if Wilson ends it by taking home some hardware.

As for Matas Buzelis, the Bulls would love just as much to see him in the Most Improved Player conversation. He took on more and more of an on-ball scoring role last season, and this process is bound to continue. The new front office clearly believes in what he's capable of, and the next step sees Buzelis averaging somewhere near 20+ points per game with the same kind of shot-blocking prowess. Improvements in the rebounding department would also be a welcome sight, as would more trips to the charity stripe!

Now, what about a Josh Giddey All-Star run? It sounds greedy, but this is the best-case scenario, after all! The jumbo point guard made a decent run at the big game last season with his repeated triple-doubles. Doing something similar under this new coaching staff would be an extremely exciting sign, as well as give the front office further confidence that he can be part of this rebuild moving forward.

What would really make this season a success, however, is what is accomplished off the court. The next handful of months are going to be all about evaluation. The Bulls obviously want to see their young talent prove worthy of long-term commitment, but they also want to see their trade chips bolster their stock.

Can Norman Powell shoot lights out and land the Bulls a haul at the deadline? Will a Tre Jones market continue to develop? What about finding suitors for Jalen Smith and Zach Collins? Heck, moving off Patrick Williams' contract would automatically make this a strong Year 1 under new leadership!

Regardless of how good these youngsters look alongside one another, it's the decisions they continue to make off the court that will hold the most weight. The previous front office repeatedly sat on their hands and became complacent. Yes, rebuilding takes time, but it also takes constant tweaking. The best version of this season simply includes pushing this roster further in the right direction with timely trades and the accumulation of more assets.

Is that what every fan wants to hear? Not necessarily, but it's what they will be thankful for down the road.

Worst Case Scenario

Mar 16, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey (3), left, forward Matas Buzelis (14), center, and guard Yuki Kawamura (8) are seen on the bench during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michael Reinsdorf has last-minute regrets, fires Bryson Graham, rehires Arturas Karnisovas, trades for Zach LaVine, benches Caleb Wilson, makes the Play-In Tournament, and loses to the Miami Heat. Done!

In all seriousness, a rocky Year 1 under new leadership shouldn't be a reason to press the panic button. A rebuild isn't supposed to be easy, and Graham has already been very vocal about remaining patient.

Still, even though fans need to be open to some more losses, there is a version of this season that can get ugly. It would all start with the Bulls' promising wing combo. While they appear to be set up for the long-haul with two versatile forwards, there is absolutely no guarantee that the fit is seamless. What if the presence of Caleb Wilson stunts Matas Buzelis' growth? What about vice versa?

Both are somewhat unproven long-range shooters who rely heavily on athleticism and scoring in the open floor. The ball-handling upside is there, as is the jump-shooting. But the fact that neither is elite in one of those departments could make playing off one another a tad difficult.

Speaking specifically to Wilson: What happens if the three-point stroke we saw in Las Vegas doesn't make it to the Midwest? There will immediately be some questions about his ceiling – let alone the kind of lineups you can build around him during his rookie year. We also can't rule out a scenario where the NBA size gets to him. Wilson has a tremendously high motor, but his wiry frame could make suiting up at the four pretty complicated some nights.

Josh Giddey could certainly take a step backward. This new-look organization likely isn't as devoted to making him a primary scoring option. Perhaps that is for the best, but Giddey signed his long-term deal under the assumption that he'd be a go-to source of offense. What if a diminished role doesn't sit too well with him? Better yet, what if he looks uncomfortable playing off the ball more while Buzelis and Wilson see their usage rating go up?

It would be easy to say that the worst-case scenario also includes a market failing to materialize for players like Norman Powell and Zach Collins. However, to Graham's credit, he did establish a fail-safe. Both contracts have team options for Year 2, meaning the Bulls can still open up maximum spending power next summer if they desire.

Nic Claxton, however, was acquired with a fair share of guaranteed money on his deal. He is owed $23 million this season and over $21 million in 2027-28. The only reason the Bulls would take on that contract for nothing in return is if they believe they can help Claxton out of his recent funk. If he doesn't return to a formidable rim protector and rebounder, though, it will look like a massive missed opportunity for this front office. They could have used that money as cap space to go after a different young talent.

Lastly, the worst-case scenario almost surely has Tiago Splitter looking out of his element. The new head coach gained plenty of fans last season, but he wasn't the one who initially set the tone or established the culture. The Bulls are now entirely in his control, and it's up to him to come up with a style of play that fits an inexperienced and rather janky roster.

Player development is all about putting young guys in a position to succeed. If this job looks too challenging for Splitter right off the bat, alarm bells will start ringing.

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