Keaton Wagler's Summer League Performance Means Nothing for His NBA Outlook

Throughout the Los Angeles Clippers' Summer League games, all eyes have been on Keaton Wagler. Clippers fans and NBA watchers who wanted to see what the fifth-overall pick can do tuned into the games in Las Vegas. It's safe to admit that it has been a slow start for Wagler.

Things have looked better for him in the last two games after his disastrous debut against the Kings last Thursday, but he has still not been where one would have hoped for. Through three games, Wagler is averaging 15.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists on 34.2/35.3/80.0 shooting splits in 28.1 minutes per game.

Wagler has especially struggled in beating his defender one-on-one and getting separation. The strength and physicality gave him some trouble, as he couldn't get to his spots as easily as he did throughout his brilliant freshman season at Illinois.

Naturally, there have been plenty of people ready to call Wagler a bust. If you already didn't like the pick for the Clippers, these three games will only reinforce what you believed in.

Overreacting to a small sample size is obviously common practice. The Summer League is especially conducive to these overreactions and hot takes. Any high lottery pick who doesn't dominate right away gets the bust label, and teams that selected them are mocked relentlessly.

NBA Spacing and Talent Will Help Keaton Wagler

In reality, Wagler's Summer League performance means very little for his NBA future. Not only have there been plenty of NBA stars who have had terrible Summer League performances before their rookie campaigns, like Jalen Brunson, Trae Young, and Derrick Rose, but Wagler's game also is not the best fit for the Summer League.

It's true that Wagler doesn't have elite physical or athletic tools. He will never blow by his defender or dunk all over the rim protector. He isn't going to run the ball down your throat and finish in traffic above multiple defenders thanks to his vertical leap and hang time.

In an environment like the Summer League, players of that mold stand out. Players like Wagler, who are more crafty and methodical, need a functional ecosystem to thrive. In the Summer League, there is very little organization, as players are not familiar with one another whatsoever.

Even worse than the lack of organization is the shooting. Teams, including the Clippers, lack the spacing to accommodate their on-ball creators. Wagler has to operate in a cramped half-court. Even worse, the Clippers don't have a traditional center on their Summer League roster, which means that there is no one to set good screens or be a true pick-and-roll partner for Wagler.

These problems will not exist in the NBA. There will be infinitely more space in the NBA, and Wagler will play with more shooters and better pick-and-roll partners.

More importantly, he will get better and stronger. He is a 19-year-old point guard who isn't an elite athlete. He will figure things out as he adapts to the NBA. He will learn what works and what doesn't and adjust his game accordingly.

Plus, even through his struggles, Wagler's skills were undeniable. He has the chance to be an elite shot maker in this league. Even if he doesn't become an on-ball creator, he can be a true difference-maker off the ball as a shooter. He simply has too much talent as a shooter and a passer to give up on.

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