Assessing Clippers' Chances of Making It Out of the Play-In Tournament

The Los Angeles Clippers stumbled in the final week of the season and lost their advantage ahead of the postseason. Despite finishing with a winning record for the 15th straight season after a miraculous turnaround, the Clippers failed to finish in the top eight. This means that they now have to win two games in the Play-In Tournament to make the playoffs. Should the Clippers like their chances?

On Wednesday, the Clippers take on the Warriors at Intuit Dome in the first game of the Play-In. If they defeat Golden State, they will face the loser of the 7-8 matchup between the Suns and the Trail Blazers on Friday. The winner of that clash will be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs and face the OKC Thunder.

How do the Clippers match up against their opponents?

Clippers Should Be Heavily Favored Against the Warriors

LA has every reason to be optimistic against the Warriors. Not only did they beat Golden State in the regular-season finale on Sunday without Kawhi Leonard, but the Clippers have also been the much better team for the season. The Clippers won the last three games between the two teams.

Since Jimmy Butler suffered a season-ending injury, the Warriors have been a middling team. Even when Steph Curry is on the floor, the Warriors have a +0.4 net rating without Butler, per Cleaning the Glass. Their offensive rating (116.9) with Curry on the court is on par with the 13th-best offense in the league, and their defense is way below league average. Since the trade deadline, the Warriors are 10-21 and have a bottom-ten unit on both ends of the floor.

The Clippers, on the other hand, are 19-13 since the trade deadline. When Leonard is on the court without the departed James Harden and Ivica Zubac, the Clippers have an impressive +12.2 net rating.

Considering that head coach Steve Kerr said that they won't be pushing Curry's minutes to 40 on Wednesday, the Warriors will have a mountain to climb. The Clippers should beat the Warriors without much trouble.

Clippers' Chances Against Blazers and Suns

The real test for the Clippers will come on the road on Friday night. The loser of the Phoenix-Portland game will host the Clippers for the last chance to make the playoffs. Both teams have split their season series against the Clippers, but they are trending in opposite directions. The Blazers have beaten the Clippers twice in the last two weeks, while the Suns have gone 14-17 since the trade deadline.

Phoenix has held the No. 7 seed in the West for much of the season. They finished with the 16th-best offense and the ninth-best defense in the league. Over the last two months, however, they have had a -1.4 net rating. LA would love their chances if they faced the Suns instead of going to Portland again in a do-or-die situation.

Portland has taken a big stride on the defensive side of the ball in recent weeks. In the last 30 games of the season, the Blazers had a top-five defense. They completely overwhelmed Darius Garland and the Clippers' offense in their last two meetings. They have size and physicality all over the court and match up very well against LA. They will be considered the favorites against the Clippers in that matchup.

If the Clippers could choose, they would prefer to face the Suns after they beat the Warriors. Whether they will get their wish, however, remains to be seen. Before they can think about that, they need to handle their business at home on Friday.