Winners and Losers From the Fallout of NBA’s Clippers-Kawhi Leonard Investigation

The NBA mashed its hammer down on the Clippers with the harshest punishment in league history following an investigation into the team for salary cap circumvention surrounding Kawhi Leonard.

Los Angeles was stripped of five first-round draft picks. Team owner Steve Ballmer, who refuted the allegations from the jump, was hit with a one-year suspension along with president of business operations Gillian Zucker. President of basketball operations Lawrence Frank got a six-month suspension. Additionally, the team was fined $30 million and Leonard was fined $700,000 for his role in the situation.

The Clippers were considerably set back for the foreseeable future. To ensure the team doesn’t violate the rules any further, the organization is subject to a compliance and monitoring program run by the league office for the next five years.

MANNIX: The Clippers Were Hit With the Harshest Punishment in NBA History, and It Could Get Worse

We know the obvious winners and losers in the matter. The Clippers will feel the wrath of the league’s punishment for years, while Ballmer got hit where it hurts with his suspension. On the flip side, Leonard got off with minimal ramifications as he pushed the blame to his team and specifically uncle and former business manager Dennis Robertson.

However, an investigation and subsequent punishment this massive can trickle down well beyond the individuals at the center. Let’s dig a bit deeper:

Winner: The NBA’s no nonsense policy with salary cap circumvention

Cap circumvention is a cardinal sin in the NBA. Built to provide competitive balance, any hush-hush agreements that fall outside of the league’s outlined cap are a big no-no. Commissioner Adam Silver has made it clear he won’t mess around when it comes to going around the cap to create a competitive advantage. David Stern severely punished the Timberwolves back in 2000 for cap circumvention and Silver made it clear his regime will take the same stance.

The Clippers were essentially placed in NBA purgatory for the long haul. Although there’s one other salary cap circumvention investigation ongoing (more on that in a moment), the league made an example out of the Clippers after nearly a yearlong investigation that found sufficient evidence of wrongdoing. With such a severe punishment handed down, it's hard to see another team going down a similar road.

Loser: Clippers fans

You have to feel for the fan base with this outcome. The Clippers will have to climb out of the hole the league’s punishment leaves well into the next decade. Free agents won’t have much incentive to join the team unless it’s for a massive overpay. The franchise was already in a rebuild after it traded James Harden, Ivica Zubac and Leonard over the past year. Netting the fifth pick in the 2026 draft and choosing Illinois guard Keaton Wagler was a nice start. The loss of five first round picks over the next seven years is detrimental, though.

The presence of Darius Garland and, presumably, Brandon Ingram helps. Rui Hachimura was a solid addition in free agency, too. Realistically, however, the Clippers won’t be competitive in the Western Conference until the sanctions pass. And the team may even need a few years after that. The fans aren’t at fault here, but the Clippers’ fan base will certainly feel the brunt of the NBA’s wrath.

Winner: The rest of the Western Conference

With the timeline of the Clippers’ rebuild extended, the rest of the West benefits. Los Angeles was a play-in team last year and a perennial playoff team for the past 15 years before that. The team will still play hard, of course. But, more likely than not, there will be one less team fighting for a playoff spot in an already stacked conference.

The Clippers could make changes as the team tries to bounce back. L.A.’s cap sheet is fairly clean moving forward, which could turn the Clippers into a dumping ground for other teams who want to shed salary. The Clippers could acquire draft capital for taking on unwanted deals, which would help the team restore its cupboard of picks. That takes time, though. With little reason for optimism after the punishments hammered the franchise, opposing teams in the West likely have one less team to worry about.

Powerhouses like the Thunder and the Spurs will be in the playoffs, so it doesn’t matter much for them. However, teams that may hover around the play-in range like the Suns, Trail Blazers and Warriors benefit from one more spot that’s easier to grab.

Loser: Five future first-round draft prospects

NBA draft board — The NBA will presumably have one less first-round pick in the years where the Clippers’ selection is forfeited | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s unclear what, if anything, the NBA will do with the first-round draft picks it stripped from the Clippers. Based on history, the league will just remove one first-rounder from the pool which would leave 29 picks in the first round of each year the Clippers are withheld a selection. In the Joe Smith-Timberwolves salary cap circumvention scandal, Minnesota was stripped of five first-rounders, although two were later returned. In years when the Wolves had a first-round pick taken, there was one less pick in the first round.

That makes sense from the league’s standpoint, but the fact that five less draft prospects will get chosen in the first round hurts players. Beyond the obvious that one less player will be drafted, first-round picks must sign a rookie scale contract which is a four-year contract. The first two years on rookie scale contracts are guaranteed, while the final two years include team options. Teams have more freedom to sign second-round draft picks, but with that comes less certainty for the player.

Two-way contracts and shorter term deals are available for second-rounders. With that, there’s a financial and stability benefit in being selected in the first round. Since the Clippers lost five picks, five draft prospects will subsequently miss out on said benefits, unless the league eventually decides to restore one or multiple of the stripped draft picks.

Winner: Pablo Torre

Possible salary cap circumvention surrounding the Clippers and Leonard was initially brought to light by the Pulitzer-winning reporting and investigation by Pablo Torre Finds Out. After Torre’s initial episode was released which made the allegations, Ballmer went on ESPN to claim he was a victim of Aspiration, the defunct tree planting company which Leonard had a $28 million no-show endorsement deal with. Over the course of nearly a year, Torre released additional podcast episodes that brought other shady endorsement deals to light.

There was a question as to whether sufficient proof existed that made it clear the Clippers facilitated endorsement deals to pay their former superstar outside of his contract within the salary cap. The league’s findings through its investigation conducted by law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz vindicated Torre’s reporting. After what was seemingly a number of PR pushes to dismiss and refute Torre’s investigation, the NBA’s investigation undoubtedly proved its merit. Investigative journalism still lives in this world of agents and teams trying to push their own narratives.

Loser: Milwaukee Bucks

After Milwaukee signed Gary Trent Jr. to a new four-year, $64 million deal over the summer, the NBA world scratched its heads. Trent remains a fine player, but he’s coming off his worst scoring total since his rookie season and $16 million annually on a long-term contract doesn’t appear to match his output. As such, the NBA launched an investigation into the matter in mid-July.

Trent signed with the Bucks two seasons ago on a veteran minimum deal. Last offseason, he signed a two-year, $7.6 million deal and later declined his $3.9 million player option for next season to become a free agent, which ultimately led to his big new contract. With the new contract to remain with the Bucks for a second season last year, it established his early Bird rights, which allowed the team to go over the salary cap to sign him. With the early Bird rights, Milwaukee signed Trent for a much larger price than he was presumedly worth on the free-agent market.

RELATED: The NBA Brought Down the Hammer on the Clippers. The Bucks Could Be Next.

Minnesota signed Smith to a series of smaller contracts to establish his Bird rights back in 2000. The two parties had an under-the-table agreement that he would get a large contract after the one-year deals through said Bird rights. The NBA took draft picks from the Wolves and voided Smith’s contract. Trent’s case feels awfully similar, although there’s no public information or reporting available on any wrongdoing at this time. Should the league’s findings indicate that Milwaukee circumvented the cap, the Clippers’ punishment must have the Bucks shaking in their boots.

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