The NBA Brought Down the Hammer on the Clippers. The Bucks Could Be Next.

After nearly a year, the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers for possible salary cap circumvention involving Kawhi Leonard concluded with the harshest punishment in league history. In July, the league launched another cap circumvention investigation into the Bucks around Gary Trent Jr.’s new contract.

The veteran guard signed a one-year, veteran minimum deal with the Bucks when he arrived in Milwaukee two seasons ago. Last offseason, he signed a two-year, $7.6 million deal and later declined his $3.9 million player option for next season to become a free agent. That led to a big four-year, $64 million deal over the summer as he comes off his worst scoring season since his rookie year.

Wait, huh?

The league office felt the same way, as it launched an investigation into the deal and the Bucks for possible salary cap circumvention in mid-July.

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Leonard’s case brought severe ramifications to the Clippers: five stripped first-round draft picks, suspensions for owner Steve Ballmer, president of business operations Gillian Zucker and president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank. Plus, a $30 million fine that’s a drop in the bucket for Ballmer. Leonard must pay a fine of $700,000 for his role in the situation, while his uncle and former business manager Dennis Robertson is banned from interacting with NBA teams or their affiliates for five years.

The most severe punishments face the Clippers as the franchise is slated to feel the wrath of the NBA’s findings well into the next decade. Free agents won’t want to join the franchise unless it’s for a drastic overpay. The Clippers’ lack of first-round picks will make trades difficult, not to mention there will be a drought of young talent entering the doors in Inglewood each year, which will hurt after trading vets James Harden, Ivica Zubac and Leonard over the past year.

That doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee. There are not reports of millions of dollars funneled to Trent through no-show endorsement deals like we did in the Leonard case, which were initially brought to light by the Pulitzer-winning investigation by Pablo Torre Finds Out. Although this situation is not as public and Trent is nowhere near Leonard’s star status, the alleged offenses are just as severe.

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Depending on the NBA’s findings in an investigation that could drag well into next year, the Bucks could be in for a world of hurt based on the hammer recently brought down on the Clippers.

What could a potential punishment for the Bucks look like?

After trading longtime franchise superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat over the offseason, Milwaukee kick-started its rebuild nicely. The Bucks landed Brayden Burries and Nate Ament in the NBA draft, using Miami’s first-round pick acquired through the trade on Ament. Two future first-rounders and a first-round pick swap came to Milwaukee in the deal, plus intriguing young players like Kel’el Ware and Kasparas Jakučionis.

The blockbuster deal stockpiled picks for the Bucks. However, the franchise owes its own first-rounder to other teams in each of the next four drafts. Three of the four owed picks are swap rights, which still leaves the Bucks with a less favorable pick in those drafts. In 2029, the Bucks owe their first-rounder outright with no protections.

If the NBA were to punish the Bucks, the precedent set indicates the league would come for one or multiple of the first-round picks the franchise has control over. The most notable salary cap circumvention case besides Leonard’s is that of Joe Smith and the Timberwolves back in 2000. As a result of the latter investigation, the league stripped the Wolves of five first-round picks, but later returned two. In addition, Smith’s contract was voided, the team was fined and owner Glen Taylor was suspended for a year.

From now through the 2033 draft, Milwaukee currently owns seven future first-round picks either outright or via pick swaps. Although the Bucks’ situation doesn’t seem as egregious as the Clippers debacle, five firsts has been the running rate for cap circumvention offenses. Should the league find the Bucks of any wrongdoing, the ramifications could be as severe as those the Clippers face.

The Bucks and the Clippers are in a similar boat—two teams looking ahead to a new era after pressing the rebuild button. Draft picks, especially first-rounders, are a critical asset for any franchise—let alone a rebuilding one. Should the Bucks lose any of said assets, the franchise would join the Clippers in NBA purgatory.

Gary Trent Jr.’s new contract smelled fishy from the outset

Trent’s case feels awfully similar to that of Smith’s with Minnesota. At the time, the NBA discovered an under-the-table agreement the Wolves had with Smith to sign him to a series of one-year deals at a small amount. Over that period, Minnesota would obtain Smith’s Bird rights (which allows franchises to go over the salary cap to sign their own players) and at the end of the third one-year deal, Smith would get a huge $86 million contract.

When Trent signed a new contract to remain with the Bucks for a second season last year, it established his early Bird rights, which allowed the Bucks to go over the salary cap to sign him. With the early Bird rights, Milwaukee signed Trent for a much larger price than he was presumedly worth on the free-agent market. He remains a solid player—he shot 41.6% from three-point range in his first season with the Bucks and connected from deep at a 36.0% clip last season. He’s mostly come off the bench over his time in Milwaukee and he could be a valuable veteran, even on a crowded depth chart at guard after the Antetokounmpo trade.

The issue isn’t a new contract for Trent, it’s the price. Four years at $16 million annually for a player that’s coming off his worst season since he was a rookie doesn’t make much sense, especially for a franchise that should be interested in keeping its cap sheet clean down the road like Milwaukee.

Since the contract didn’t jive with his perceived market value, it raised alarm bells that it was potentially a handshake deal after Trent took team-friendly contracts with the Bucks the past two seasons. And that led to the NBA’s current investigation.

Now, we wait for the league’s findings. If the Leonard case taught us anything, it’s that we may be a long way away from a resolution as the investigation into the Bucks started less than two months ago. However, the league showed us it won’t mess around when it comes to the cardinal sin of cap circumvention.

The post-Giannis Bucks could be the next team to walk the plank.

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